With the start of conference tournaments, many prospects could benefit from a deep March run, while others fall and falter. Before we enter the madness, we dropped our full 99 player draft rank below highlighting a few rising and falling players. If you are interested in the always updating prospect rank, you can read more here.
Rising
#16 Ochai Agbaji: Currently slotted as our 16th ranked prospect, Agbaji continues to sky rocket up draft boards. A national player of the year contender, and in my opinion the favorite, came back to school and rapidly addressed the deficiencies in his game. Last season, I thought the Kansas star should have been selected in the 2021 draft if he chose to remain in the selection pool. My main concerns, which you can read about in greater detail here, were his inefficiency on the offensive end of the floor. While he was always gifted based on athletic ability his junior year was marked as “a year of regression”. This season, he rewrote the narrative. Shooting a career best from the field, behind the arc and at the line he has also increased his rebounding effort and continues to make a real impact on each passing game. A middle second round pick last year and a presumed second rounder at the start of the season, Agbaji has exceeded all expectations and is pushing toward the lottery. If he can have a long successful March campaign he may find himself leaving the green room earlier than ever expected.
#29 Walker Kessler: Sophomore Walker Kessler has seen a day and night transformation since moving on from UNC. The seven foot center wasn’t on many draft boards headed into the season and for good reason, after never starting a gam his freshman year and only averaging four points in twenty nine contests it felt like Kessler was on his way to be a four year “never was” in the college basketball universe. A stunning player and prospect coming out of high school he never found his footing at North Carolina but had a major revival under Bruce Pearl as a more traditional interior big man. He does most of his work around the rim at an eye popping 62% from the field. While he has not developed any type of perimeter shot and his free throws are a major question mark, his size potential and sophomore performance have put him in the conversation for a first round pick. While we have him ranked 29th in our prospect list, a solid conference tournament could put him squarely in the first round.
Falling
#25 Patrick Baldwin Jr.: Baldwin went to play for his dad at Milwaukee and it ended in disaster on the court. Issues staying healthy, shutting it down for the season and missing out on a tournament bid Baldwin’s draft future is now up for debate. Once a presumed top ten pick, he has slowly slipped into the twenties. Sitting as the 25th ranked prospect in our pre-march rankings, Baldwin can truly on go down from here. It feels like what is keeping his first round shine afloat is the chance he can recapture his high school prowess in an NBA system. It is hard to make final judgement on a player who has so much career left but this experiment could end up equally as bad if not worse than when Makur Maker chose Howard over other top programs around the NCAA. Hopefully, Baldwin will be able to show his ability at the combine and retain some of his pre-college draft stock. Another year in college as a transfer feels off the table for such a highly touted player but may be the best way to reclaim his draft status. It is clear he will be betting on himself in either scenario and will be interesting to see if he is a first round selection.
#12 Jalen Duren: Duren is a lottery pick and a solid contributor for the surging Memphis Tigers. While he isn’t plummeting off draft boards like some of the other prospects on our list below, he hasn’t improved his stock during the season and can’t seem to hold his ground established in the preseason. We don’t imagine Duren to fall outside of the lottery but the month of March generally propels names that weren’t ever imagined to be lottery picks into the conversation. If NBA organizations start to think Duren is less valuable than the players that surround him in the ranking, even though he is clearly a top four power forward in the draft, he could find himself outside the lottery and inside the green room waiting longer than anticipated. If you are interested in taking a deeper dive into individual prospects, take a look at our scouting section here!