With the start of conference tournaments, many prospects could benefit from a deep March run, while others fall and falter. Before we enter the madness, we dropped our full 99 player draft rank below highlighting a few rising and falling players. If you are interested in the always updating prospect rank, you can read more here.
Rising
#16 Ochai Agbaji: Currently slotted as our 16th ranked prospect, Agbaji continues to sky rocket up draft boards. A national player of the year contender, and in my opinion the favorite, came back to school and rapidly addressed the deficiencies in his game. Last season, I thought the Kansas star should have been selected in the 2021 draft if he chose to remain in the selection pool. My main concerns, which you can read about in greater detail here, were his inefficiency on the offensive end of the floor. While he was always gifted based on athletic ability his junior year was marked as “a year of regression”. This season, he rewrote the narrative. Shooting a career best from the field, behind the arc and at the line he has also increased his rebounding effort and continues to make a real impact on each passing game. A middle second round pick last year and a presumed second rounder at the start of the season, Agbaji has exceeded all expectations and is pushing toward the lottery. If he can have a long successful March campaign he may find himself leaving the green room earlier than ever expected.
#29 Walker Kessler: Sophomore Walker Kessler has seen a day and night transformation since moving on from UNC. The seven foot center wasn’t on many draft boards headed into the season and for good reason, after never starting a gam his freshman year and only averaging four points in twenty nine contests it felt like Kessler was on his way to be a four year “never was” in the college basketball universe. A stunning player and prospect coming out of high school he never found his footing at North Carolina but had a major revival under Bruce Pearl as a more traditional interior big man. He does most of his work around the rim at an eye popping 62% from the field. While he has not developed any type of perimeter shot and his free throws are a major question mark, his size potential and sophomore performance have put him in the conversation for a first round pick. While we have him ranked 29th in our prospect list, a solid conference tournament could put him squarely in the first round.
Falling
#25 Patrick Baldwin Jr.: Baldwin went to play for his dad at Milwaukee and it ended in disaster on the court. Issues staying healthy, shutting it down for the season and missing out on a tournament bid Baldwin’s draft future is now up for debate. Once a presumed top ten pick, he has slowly slipped into the twenties. Sitting as the 25th ranked prospect in our pre-march rankings, Baldwin can truly on go down from here. It feels like what is keeping his first round shine afloat is the chance he can recapture his high school prowess in an NBA system. It is hard to make final judgement on a player who has so much career left but this experiment could end up equally as bad if not worse than when Makur Maker chose Howard over other top programs around the NCAA. Hopefully, Baldwin will be able to show his ability at the combine and retain some of his pre-college draft stock. Another year in college as a transfer feels off the table for such a highly touted player but may be the best way to reclaim his draft status. It is clear he will be betting on himself in either scenario and will be interesting to see if he is a first round selection.
#12 Jalen Duren: Duren is a lottery pick and a solid contributor for the surging Memphis Tigers. While he isn’t plummeting off draft boards like some of the other prospects on our list below, he hasn’t improved his stock during the season and can’t seem to hold his ground established in the preseason. We don’t imagine Duren to fall outside of the lottery but the month of March generally propels names that weren’t ever imagined to be lottery picks into the conversation. If NBA organizations start to think Duren is less valuable than the players that surround him in the ranking, even though he is clearly a top four power forward in the draft, he could find himself outside the lottery and inside the green room waiting longer than anticipated. If you are interested in taking a deeper dive into individual prospects, take a look at our scouting section here!
Player | Position | College | Conference | Original Rank | Draft Day |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jabari Smith | PF | Auburn | SEC | 2 | 1 |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Duke | ACC | 3 | 2 |
Chet Holmgren | SF/PF | Gonzaga | West Coast | 1 | 3 |
Jaden Ivey | SG | Purdue | Big 10 | 4 | 4 |
Bennedict Mathurin | SG | Arizona | Pac-12 | 8 | 5 |
Keegan Murray | SF/PF | Iowa | Big 10 | 10 | 6 |
Dyson Daniels | SG/SF | G-League | G-League | 23 | 7 |
Shaedon Sharpe | SG | Kentucky | SEC | 6 | 8 |
AJ Griffin | SF | Duke | ACC | 5 | 9 |
Jalen Duren | C | Memphis | American | 11 | 10 |
Jeremy Sochan | SF/PF | Baylor | Big 12 | 20 | 11 |
Johnny Davis | SG | Wisconsin | Big 10 | 7 | 12 |
Malaki Branham | SG | Ohio State | Big 10 | 29 | 13 |
Tari Eason | SF | LSU | SEC | 9 | 14 |
Mark Williams | C | Duke | ACC | 21 | 15 |
Dalen Terry | SG/PG | Arizona | Pac-12 | 50 | 16 |
Jalen Williams | SF | Santa Clara | West Coast | 55 | 17 |
Ousmane Dieng | SF | France | International | 30 | 18 |
TyTy Washington | PG | Kentucky | SEC | 14 | 19 |
EJ Liddell | PF/C | Ohio State | Big 10 | 27 | 20 |
Jaden Hardy | SG | G-League | G-League | 22 | 21 |
Blake Wesley | SG | Notre Dame | ACC | 33 | 22 |
Ochai Agbaji | SG | Kansas | Big 12 | 15 | 23 |
Wendell Moore Jr. | SF | Duke | ACC | 17 | 24 |
Kennedy Chandler | PG | Tennesse | SEC | 26 | 25 |
Jake Larvia | SF | Wake Forest | ACC | 65 | 26 |
MarJon Beauchamp | SG | G-League | G-League | 16 | 27 |
Patrick Baldwin | SF/PF | Milwaukee | Horizon | 24 | 28 |
Kendall Brown | SF | Baylor | Big 12 | 12 | 29 |
Nikola Jovic | PF | Serbia | International | 13 | 30 |
Walker Kessler | C | Auburn | SEC | 25 | 31 |
Bryce McGowens | SG | Nebraska | Big 10 | 37 | 32 |
Christian Braun | SG | Kansas | Big 12 | 31 | 32 |
Josh Minott | SG/SF | Memphis | American | 60 | 34 |
Trevor Keels | SG | Duke | ACC | 32 | 35 |
Jean Montero | PG/SG | Overtime Elite | International | 18 | 36 |
Ismael Kamagate | C | Paris Basketball | International | 34 | 37 |
Andrew Nembhard | PG | Gonzaga | West Coast | 70 | 38 |
Jaylin Williams | PF | Arkansas | SEC | 57 | 39 |
Justin Lewis | SF/PF | Marquette | Big East | 45 | 40 |
Ryan Rollins | SG | Toledo | MAC | N/A | 41 |
Max Christie | SG | Michigan State | Big 10 | 39 | 42 |
David Roddy | SF | Colorado State | Mountain West | 38 | 43 |
Caleb Houstan | SF | Michigan | Big 10 | 35 | 44 |
Christian Koloko | C | Arizona | Pac-12 | 28 | 45 |
Michael Foster | PF | G-League | G-League | 54 | 46 |
Aminu Mohammed | PG | Georgetown | Big East | N/A | 47 |
Dereon Seabron | SG | NC State | ACC | N/A | 48 |
Jabari Walker | SF/PF | Colorado | Pac-12 | 44 | 49 |
Hugo Besson | PG | NZ Breakers | International | N/A | 50 |
Yannick Nzosa | C | Congo | International | 47 | 51 |
Dominick Barlow | PF | Overtime Elite | Overtime Elite | N/A | 52 |
Leonard Miller | SF | Canada | International | N/A | 53 |
Gabriele Procida | SG/SF | Italy | International | 114 | 54 |
Ron Harper Jr. | SF | Rutgers | Big 10 | 88 | 55 |
Alondes Williams | SG/PG | Wake Forest | ACC | 49 | 56 |
John Butler | PF | Florida State | ACC | N/A | 57 |
JD Davidson | PG | Alabama | SEC | 36 | 58 |
Khalif Diop | C | Spain | International | 69 | 59 |
Peyton Watson | SF | UCLA | Pac-12 | 64 | 60 |
Trevion Williams | PF | Purdue | Big 10 | 41 | 61 |
Keon Ellis | SG | Alabama | SEC | 40 | 62 |
Collin Gillespie | PG | Villanova | Big East | N/A | 63 |
Orlando Robinson | C | Fresno State | Mountain West | 78 | 64 |
Matteo Spagnolo | PG/SG | Italy | International | 61 | 65 |
Isaiah Mobley | PF/C | USC | Pac-12 | 74 | 66 |
Iverson Molinar | PG | Mississippi St. | SEC | 52 | 67 |
Jamaree Bouyea | PG | San Fransico | West Coast | 118 | 68 |
Kofi Cockburn | C | Illinois | Big 10 | 89 | 69 |
Julian Champagnie | SF | St. John's | Big East | 45 | 70 |
Vince Williams Jr. | SF | VCU | Atlantic 10 | 115 | 71 |
Kenny Lofton Jr. | PF | Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | 112 | 72 |
Scottie Pipper Jr. | PG | Vanderbilt | SEC | 109 | 73 |
Ziga Samar | PG | Slovenia | International | N/A | 74 |
Jared Rhoden | SG | Seton Hall | Big East | 104 | 75 |
Jordan Hall | PG/SG | St. Joes | A10 | 48 | 76 |
Zvonimir Ivisic | PF | Croatia | International | N/A | 77 |
Moussa Diabate | PF | Michigan | Big 10 | N/A | 78 |
DeVante Jones | PG | Michigan | Big 10 | 56 | 79 |
Brady Manek | PF | North Carolina | ACC | N/A | 80 |
Johnny Juzang | SG | UCLA | Pac-12 | 68 | 81 |
Karlo Matkovic | PF | Serbia | International | N/A | 82 |
Tyrese Martin | SG/SF | UConn | Big East | 111 | 83 |
Ibou Dianko Badji | C | Senegal | International | 81 | 84 |
Keve Aluma | SF/PF | Virginia Tech | ACC | 96 | 85 |
Andre Jackson | SG/SF | UConn | Big East | 100 | 86 |
Tevin Brown | SG | Murray State | Ohio Valley | N/A | 87 |
Gabe Brown | SF | Michigan State | Big 10 | N/A | 88 |
James Akinjo | PG | Baylor | Big 12 | N/A | 89 |
Tristan Vukcevic | PF | Serbia | International | 101 | 90 |
Bryson Williams | PF | Texas Tech | Big 12 | N/A | 91 |
Eric Ayala | SG | Maryland | Big 10 | 108 | 92 |
Darius Days | PF | LSU | SEC | N/A | 93 |
Izaiah Brockington | SG | Iowa State | Big 12 | N/A | 94 |
Fanbo Zeng | C | G-League | G-League | N/A | 95 |
Mario Nakic | SF | Serbia | International | 103 | 96 |
Jules Bernard | SF | UCLA | Pac-12 | N/A | 97 |
Kok Yat | SF | Overtime Elite | Overtime Elite | N/A | 98 |
JD Notae | PG/SG | Arkansas | SEC | 116 | 99 |