One week into the season we gut check the teams on the rise and the teams falling out. A poor first week may not determine the end result but sets the tone for the season ahead.
Over the last three seasons college basketball has been diving into anarchy much earlier than March. Mid-major programs have become more relevant through long term program building, transfers have become cornerstones of their new program and recruits have found that they don’t need to go to Duke, Kansas, North Carolina or Kentucky to become an NBA superstar. The gap between programs has become much smaller. A school like Oral Roberts can go toe to toe with Florida and Ohio State, low level programs in power conferences make improbable runs in the the tournament. All of this amounting to the stock of each program has a chance to rise and fall more rapidly throughout the season. No program is safe from the stock report and this week we are focusing on teams in the top 25.
Teams on the Rise:
Memphis Tigers: The rise of Memphis goes beyond this season. Securing Emoni Bates for two years and poaching him from Michigan State when he reopened his recruitment has been Penny Hardaway’s greatest success so far. Bates is dynamic, exciting and possesses the skillset of the best player in any of the recent draft classes. The hype around Bates is real and Hardaway has him for two years. Outside of Bates, the Tigers also have Jalen Duren a top ten prospect in his own right. As they continue to grow as a team they will have a chance to challenge some of the other top programs in the country. Hardaway has scheduled Virginia Tech, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee as non-conference games. While the team may not win all of the games listed, the ability to compete against other top programs from power conferences will help Memphis get into tournament form. Playing in the AAC expect the Tigers to compete with Houston for the conference regular season title. When the Tigers go dancing this season expect them to make some noise in the tournament, as long as they stay healthy.
Duke Blue Devils: This may feel like an obvious inclusion but the Duke Blue Devils went from outhouse to penthouse in one year. As expected from the premier blue blood program in Coach K’s last dance, the Devils have stacked the deck to try to get one more national championship. Led by a mixture of recruits and transfers Duke is already 3-0 with a statement win in The Garden over Kentucky. With Banchero, Keels and Williams (to name a few) Duke has the roster and depth to compete with anyone. Banchero could be the best prospect in the next draft and his size and athleticism will be a matchup nightmare for the rest of the season. The key this season is the mixture of returning players, recruits and transfers. With maturity comes the ability to decrease mistakes and prevent the program from compounding losses. Expect the Blue Devils to remain undefeated for some time and check their future odds in your preferred sports book because they may just be the value pick this early in the season.
Teams Falling Out:
Michigan State Spartans: If it hasn’t already been expressed, it shouldn’t be a secret I am no fan of Tom Izzo. “Mr. March” hasn’t been the last team standing in two decades and every year they are supposed to have a chance they fall short. After losing Bates to Memphis, the Spartans had a chance to beat an, in my opinion, overated Kansas team and couldn’t get the job done. Even though they are 1-1 they beat up on a Western Michigan team that probably received more money to play in the game than all of their players NIL deals combined. A small test against Butler in their next game I expect Michigan State to tread water for the rest of the year. Expectation will keep them in the tournament but the reality is never going to be close to what people expect from a team that participated in The Champions Classic.
Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State skated by in a buy game. I understand that it is about winning and they are undefeated but they clearly have real issues that need to be addressed if they want to be taken as a serious contender in March. Even though they are led by EJ Liddell it just feels like the team has too many glaring issues everywhere else to warrant their ranking. The AP ranked the Buckeyes 19th, MIP has ranked them at 22 which still seems high. The Buckeyes were truly 9 seconds away from being completely unranked but instead because they skated by we have to rank them? It just feels like we are giving the team the benefit of the doubt. Going even further, considering what I said above about Michigan State, I would rather see Michigan State ranked for losing to a top 5 Kansas than Ohio State ranked for barely escaping Akron. Expect Ohio State to falter when they start seeing above average programs in and out of their conference.
Honorable Mention:
Seton Hall Pirates: Seton Hall only received 8 votes in the AP poll this week and aren’t close to breaking into the top 25 as of this afternoon. However, this could all change tonight. If the Pirates are able to upset #4 Michigan on the road they will find themselves comfortably in the top 25 come next week even if they fall in their next game to #19 Ohio State. If they beat both or even keep the Michigan game close and beat Ohio State, they will skyrocket in the polls. Seton Hall has been the center of a revival in recent years. A program that was a middling Big East team invested in Kevin Willard and success has followed. With a solid combination of size, shooting and depth the Pirates have a chance to put the NCAA on notice this week.