Texas and Oklahoma St. square off today in a battle of two Big 12 teams looking to bolster their resume. While the two teams play to keep pace with Baylor, three prospects will be center stage.
The Texas Longhorns have exceeded expectations this season. In recent years it felt like Shaka Smart’s time Austin was slowly running out as the teams he put on the floor never really were able to compete with Kansas, West Virginia and more recently Texas Tech. However, it seems like Smart has finally put together the right amount of chemistry and talent. The Longhorns did have high expectations, they were ranked 19th in preseason polls, but nobody expected the team to be a top eight team in the country. Competing for a top two seed in one of the tournament regions, the Longhorns went from having their eyes set on the sweet sixteen to final four or bust. Oklahoma State on the other hand is fighting for better position in March. The Cowboys may be out of the race for the regular season title, and while anything is possible with Cade Cunningham, they also don’t seem to have a chance in the conference tournament. With Baylor playing as well as they are OK St. should be focused on improving their position in the field of 68. Another signature win against Texas would do just that and propel them into the conversation to grab a top 5 regional seed.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys will go as far as Cade Cunningham takes them. A classic one and done player, he is at the root of the success this team has experienced. Cunningham and the team around him may not be good enough to win any major championships this year (NCAA, Big 12 reg. or Big 12 tournament) but his presence at the school and on the floor may help them court recruits in the future. A middling team that would be a bad team without their star have a chance to be a fun pick in the early rounds of the tournament but don’t expect to see them past the round of 32.
Cade Cunningham: The number one overall pick before he even stepped on the floor, Cade Cunningham has seemingly solidified his spot in the 2021 draft. A 6-8 point guard that can score at all three levels, command your offense and rebound at an elevated rate which has lead to a player comp of Grant Hill at the next level. Clearly the best player on the Oklahoma State roster, and maybe the best prospect to ever wear an Ok St. jersey, Cunningham doesn’t do a lot wrong on the floor. He shoots the three a bit below 40% on five attempts a game and is aided by his size to shoot over his defenders even when the shot is contested. His ability to get into the lane and welcome contact is reinforced by his 83.6% free throw percentage, generally a mark of a good shooter. One of the areas of improvement for Cunningham is his assist to turnover ratio. As a big guard, many other large guards are aided by their size to see the court and assist at a higher rate than they turn the ball over. Currently Cunningham, on average, is assisting at the same rate he is turning the ball over. As he grows he will continue to develop his decision making but at the very least his turnover rate should cause some concern moving to the NBA level. As the game speeds up, defenders will get into passing lanes faster, recognize plays and defend without fouling at a more disciplined rate. If he is unable to get his turnovers under control, it could cost him (some*) minutes in the NBA. MIP Projection: Top 3 (1st)
*He will still receive NBA minutes as a starter, he is going to be the first overall pick, he may just not experience crunch time minutes if he is a bit more turnover prone early in his career.
#6 Texas: The Longhorns have been described by many as “Junkyard Dogs” and based on their season so far that is the perfect description. Gritty, passionate, and at your neck the entire game Shaka Smart has finally found a team that can make a real impact in March. It is hard to pick a leader on the Texas team. The entire roster holds each other accountable contributes to the success of the team and provides a spark when others may not be producing. A team full of college veterans and young prospects, Texas is the type of team with the perfect formula for a deep March run. As far as the 2021 NBA draft, the Longhorns should see Kai Jones and Greg Brown come off the board in the first round.
Kai Jones: Jones is a player that finds himself in the first round because of what he can do not necessarily what he does right now. Looking on the surface, nothing about him statistically really jumps out. Averaging on 8.6 points and 5 rebounds he is currently a minor contributor for the overall success of the Longhorns. However, it is his physical attributes and potential that make him a first round prospect. A 6-11 wing with good length, Jones could be the type of player that arrives in an NBA system, is mentored for his first two years with minor rotation minutes, and then explodes on the scene 2-4 years after he is drafted. Year over year, his progression is extremely encouraging. He has improved his shooting percentages across the board and as shown that he has the ability to shoot from outside even though it may not be often. In my opinion, Jones is certainly a project pick for a team that can afford it. Expect a contender or a perennial playoff team, betting on his upside, to scoop him up late in the first round. MIP Projection: Late First Round/Early Second (22-32)
Greg Brown: In contrast to Jones, Brown is a more NBA ready prospect at this point in his development. In a league that is starving for players with switchability and floor spacing, Brown brings both to the table. Standing at 6-9, and playing bigger on the boards than he is listed, the forward has a chance to immediately impact a rotation at the next level. He is not afraid to shoot the ball from deep and has shown that he can also take it to the rack and welcome contact from defenders. While he is not the “best” at anything right now he should still earn minutes on the floor for a team looking for another wing. At the next level, I expect Brown to play more of the three while also being featured as a small ball four, due to his stature. If he can continue to use his minutes at the next level to improve his free throw percentage and shoot above 35% from deep, he would put himself in a position to raise his ceiling and via for a starting role down the line. Obviously, if Brown can’t elevate his game at the next level he will still be a nice role player because of his defensive switchability, explosiveness and ability to score as a “rim runner” off the bench. Expect Brown to come off the board before Jones. MIP Projection: Mid/Late First (17-28)
Prediction: Texas 79 – Oklahoma St. 74