The level of play continues to rise and the number of teams on the bubble continue to grow, how are the teams that need it the most this time of year trending? Stock is as important as strength of schedule down the stretch and the teams with momentum seem to get the benefit of the doubt come selection Sunday.
Teams on the Rise:
Arkansas Razorbacks: The SEC has held an ample amount of surprise this year. With the abysmal season from Kentucky and many of the other SEC teams stepping up to become tournament threats, some of the other programs in the conference were put on the backbruner in the news cycle. As analysts tried to figure out Kentucky and praise the likes of Tennessee and LSU, the Razorbacks have been slowly chipping away at the teams in their conference. Before their last four games, Arkansas was a middle of the pack team in the conference and has rattled off four straight wins since putting them at 9-4 in the SEC, 16-5 overall and #24 in the AP Poll this week. Backed by a lottery lock in Moses Moody, Arkansas may not win their conference but they have their eyes set on something bigger. A formula to win, a star prospect with a high level supporting cast, don’t be surprised if the Razorbacks end up in the Sweet Sixteen.
Loyola (IL) Ramblers: Can you be a ranked Cinderella? It feels like the Ramblers could still have some magic in the tank after their final four run only a few short years ago. As we continue to see the rise of mid-majors Loyola has continued to win at an efficient pace. 19-4 on the season, I am not sure they Ramblers will end up back in the final four but expect Sister Jean to guide the team back to the tournament even if they do not win their conference tournament. Overall, the Ramblers are the perfect example of a mid-major exceeding expectations and forcing top tier programs and media to take them seriously. A few short years ago, I would argue that even with their current record and the state of college basketball, they would not be ranked because of “who they play”. Players are going to continue to play where they want and it feels like programs all over the country have figured out the formula to success even if they aren’t courting three 5-star prospects a year. For March and for college basketball as a whole, I hope the Ramblers continue to make noise this year.
Teams Falling Out:
UConn Huskies: James Bouknight is back so why are the Huskies trending down? The answer is simple, they have no wiggle room. Over the time he was absent from the lineup the idea of Bouknight helped the Huskies stay on the bubble. Bouknight as an “idea” is the way analysts and committee members think about UConn’s team as a whole when Bouknight plays. Prior to his injury the Huskies were destined to be a tournament team which has, to this point, given them the benefit of the doubt in bracket projections. Many say “when Bouknight is healthy” or “when Bouknight is back” as a way to justify keeping them on the bubble because everyone assumes they will begin to string together wins now that Bouknight is back. However, what happens if this isn’t the case? With five games left, I would imagine the team has to win atleast three of five and one at MSG to get off the bubble. Dropping a game to Villanova may not hurt them but slipping up to Marquette, Georgetown or Seton Hall makes the “idea” of Bouknight less appealing and the less than stellar resume gets louder. In my opinion, the star power of Bouknight should warrant a tournament bid over a team like Xavier but don’t be surprised if they get snubbed.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: If there was a time to panic, it would be right now. The Golden Gophers were on this list a few weeks ago because they were falling out of an at large bid in the tournament. Since then the panic button has been firmly placed on the table as the team struggles to keep pace with the rest of their conference. The Gophers are sitting firmly on the bubble instead of in the conversation for a top four seed, as early season projections indicated, because they haven’t been able to sync up offensively. The Gophers are a team that relies on their offense to power them to victory and without every player on the same page, the team has put their backs against the wall. Every game matters the rest of the way and there is not getting around the fact the team could end up in the NIT if they can’t figure it out. They have to play close to perfect basketball the rest of the way and come out of their tournament net neutral (going 1-1 would do it) but in a conference as competitive as the B1G nothing is guaranteed.
Honorable Mention:
Seton Hall Pirates: After a stretch of three straight losses to Villanova and Creighton, Seton Hall went from automatic tournament team to fighting for their life on the bubble. One loss could have sunk their ship and while they are still in jeopardy of ending up back on the bubble, senior leadership from Shavar Reynolds, Myles Cale and Sandro Mamukelashvili have drug the Pirates back for the abyss as they currently are a projected #10 seed. While any of the games in their upcoming stretch could end up being detrimental blows to their selection hopes, they have taken control of their own destiny. Look for the Pirates, depending on their draw, to frustrate first round opponents with their length on both ends. Even without Myles Powell, the program that Kevin Willard has built puts the team in a position to play spoiler for a higher seed in the tournament.