The AFC Wild Card matchups have finally arrived, with 2 of these games quite possibly being blowouts. Do the underdogs have any chance of making it to the next round?
#7 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #2 Kansas City Chiefs
The Line: Kansas City -12.5, O/U, 46 courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Wednesday, 1/12/2022)
The Steelers have clawed their way back into the playoffs in what is most likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final season in the NFL. This whole season he hasn’t exactly been the Big Ben of old, but he has managed to get the job done game in and game out. For the Steelers to win this game, he is going to have to turn back the clock and play one of his best games against one of the best teams in the NFL. Najee Harris has been an amazing running back as a rookie this season, and will need to continue to run downhill to keep Tyrann Mathieu and the Chiefs defense from blitzing and pressuring Big Ben in the pocket. On the other side of the ball, TJ Watt and Cameron Hayward will need to shine on the D-Line if they are going to force Patrick Mahomes into making mistakes.
On the flip side, the Chiefs are far and away the better team in this playoff matchup. Mahomes and star receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are absolute nightmare matchups for any defense in the NFL. Coupled with Clyde Edwards-Helaire pounding the rock throughout the game, the Chiefs offense is poised to score 35 points in any game. Defensively, Tyrann Mathieu will be looking to make his presence felt in the backfield and in coverage, while a D-Line led by Chris Jones will look to make Big Ben hit the turf early and often.
THE PICK: There isn’t really much to say here. As mentioned before, the Chiefs are better as a team in just about every aspect, so I’m going with Mahomes Magic. It was an amazing job by Mike Tomlin to get his team to this spot, but even Big Ben said it himself: they have no chance.
CHIEFS -12.5
#6 Las Vegas Raiders vs. #3 Cincinnati Bengals
The Line: Cincinnati -5.5, O/U 48.5, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Wednesday, 1/12/2022)
The Raiders won their week 18 matchup against the LA Chargers in order to claw their way into the playoffs. With everything that this team has gone through, from Jon Gruden getting fired to Henry Ruggs’ fatal accident, it is amazing that interim coach Rich Bisaccia has navigated this season and found a way to get to this point. For their efforts, Las Vegas gets to play a red-hot Bengals team led by star QB Joe Burrow. For the Raiders to have a chance at the upset, Carr is going to need to find Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller early and often and let them work their way down the field. Josh Jacobs will need to impose his will as he powers through the defensive line to make Carr’s life a little bit easier. Defensively, cornerbacks Casey Hayward Jr. and Desmond Trufant are going to have their hands full with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The Bengals, meanwhile, come into this postseason race as the one of the hottest teams in the playoffs. Joe Burrow has looked like a superstar in his last 2 games against the Ravens and Chiefs. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are starting to become one of the league’s best wide receiver tandems, while Joe Mixon continues to make his presence felt on the ground. After a week of rest, these 4 should be right back to business and keeping Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley up at night. Defensively, stopping Josh Jacobs should be a top priority. If he’s a non-factor in the run game, it will give the Bengal’s pass rushers an opportunity to get after Derek Carr and cause havoc in the backfield.
THE PICK: With the way the Bengals have been playing, it’s hard to not take them. Burrow has played amazing football in the past few weeks, and in my opinion, it will be more of the same. The Raiders may come out fighting early, but the Bengals will score early and often to move on to the next round.
BENGALS -5.5
#5 New England Patriots vs. #4 Buffalo Bills
The Line: Buffalo -4, O/U 44, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Wednesday, 1/12/2022)
This game will more than likely be the closest game out of these 3. These two division rivals know each other very well and split the series this year, with Buffalo being the most recent winner. For the Bills, a resurging Devin Singletary has brought new life to the Bills’ offense. Not only that, but Josh Allen has seemed to find a rhythm again, with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley helping him and the rest of the offense put up no less than 27 points in each of their last 5 games. The Bills are also stout defensively in the passing game, with much to be desired against the run. Stopping the run will be crucial against the Patriots, who already beat them once by only passing 3 times and running the ball for the rest of the game.
For the Patriots, running the ball will be and should be the main focus for this game. As mentioned before, the Bills run defense hasn’t exactly been steller over the course of the regular season. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are going to have to get going early for the offense to succeed. That way, the play action passing game opens up for rookie quarterback Mac Jones, which helps him make easy reads down the field to set the Patriots up for success. Bill Belichick will surely have something creative ready on the defensive side of the ball to confuse Josh Allen. The last thing the Patriots need is him scrambling, as he is a threat to take off once he’s flushed out of the pocket.
THE PICK: This game will come down to one or two plays. While the Patriots did look unbeatable in the first half of the season, they have come back down and Mac Jones hasn’t exactly been a world beater. The Bills, meanwhile, ended their season on a 4 game win streak and have serious momentum heading into this game. I think that the Bills will try and set the tone early in the hopes of controlling the clock and tiring out New England’s defense. Even if Mac Jones has had a fine season compared to the rest of his rookie class, his season will end Saturday night in Buffalo.
BILLS -4