Every single year, an athletic freak, a bowl game hero, or a workout warrior is terribly overvalued. They are drafted much higher than they should be and earn the dreaded “bust” label. Every team has a horror story about overvaluing a player only to watch him fizzle out of the league. From now until the NFL Draft we will be spotlighting guys who could carry that potential bust title.
While there is always an inherent risk involved with the draft, not all picks and players are created equal. Some teams opt to get “safe” picks. A player that may not have the upside to be a hall of fame caliber player, but could be a high level effective starter for a decade. Some teams on the other hand, push their chips to the middle of the table and go all in on raw but unrefined talent.
When it works, the GM looks like a genius for making the draft pick. When it goes awry and the player is a bust, the GM and coach could end up on the chopping block. For every Patrick Mahomes, there is five Clelin Ferrel’s. There is no shortage of guys with immense upside in this draft, but buyer beware; it could mean the unemployment line for the executives who swing and miss.
Carson Strong
Redshirt Junior
Quarterback
Nevada
6’4 220lbs
2021 stats: 4,186 yards 36 TDs 8 INTs 70% completion
There is no shortage of statistics and accolades with Carson Strong. In three years at Nevada he has racked up almost 9,400 yards and threw 74 touchdowns. When his career came to an end this past year he was top five in school history in every major QB stat and held the single season record for passing touchdowns. Those stats culminated in him winning back to back Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year awards in 2020 and 2021 and piloting The Wolfpack to three straight bowl game berths.
A player with his level of experience and arm talent shouldn’t be considered a potential bust, but he is polarizing to say the least. From the beginning of the season till now, he has been ranked everywhere from QB1 to QB6. I myself had him ranked as QB5 earlier in the year. Some outlets have him projected as a potential pro bowl level player, while some have him as a near lock to be a bust.
Positives
As I stated his arm talent is top tier. He has arguably the strongest arm in his class able to launch it with the flick of his wrist. He has a beautiful deep ball, airing it out right on target with consistency and his touch throws are already pro level. He has no issue putting enough zip on the ball to complete the out-routes or tight window throws.
He has a crisp and compact throwing motion, not giving pass rushers many chances to force a fumble. Being mechanically sound is such an underrated aspect of quarterbacking. Watching Mahomes and Rodgers deliver strikes from crazy angles may make highlight reels, but part of what makes Tom Brady the GOAT is his robotic delivery.
Strong has the prototypical NFL body. Standing 6’4 and 220 pounds, he has the height to stand and deliver from the pocket and the heft to hold up to big NFL tacklers.
Negatives
If it was all sunshine and rainbows for Mr.Strong, we wouldn’t be talking about him as a potential bust.
His level of competition has been called into question, compiling big numbers by beating up on inferior opponents. The Mountain West isn’t a bad conference, but he isn’t putting up these numbers against SEC defenses either.
Despite his beautiful deep ball, he has shown struggles in his short to intermediate passes. A lot of the short-mid range passing game is timing and anticipation; two things he hasn’t had to worry about improving on due to his natural arm strength. Speaking of, he hasn’t quite learned how to reign in his arm strength. Seemingly every pass is shot out of a cannon, sometimes you have to take a little off a ball to make it more catchable.
His confidence in his arm strength has gotten him into trouble at times. While he has thrown an impressive 74 touchdowns, he also has racked up 19 interceptions. Having a little gun slinger in a quarterback is a good thing, but there’s a fine line between confidence and recklessness.
Strong isn’t what you would call mobile either. He is a statue, choosing to deliver from the pocket as opposed to improvising. He is definitely the worst athlete of all his contemporaries. Mobile quarterbacks are very much the rage in todays NFL so that could limit the amount of suitors he has. Add in a very nasty knee injury in high school, and you have the making of a player teams will think long and hard about before the draft.
Summary
Carson Strong has as much talent as a pure passer as anyone in the draft. But with his previous injury lingering over him, lack of mobility, and lack of production against top flight talent he as just as many red flags. He is the biggest boom or bust prospect at the quarterback position this year without a doubt. Considering none of the quarterbacks are a slam dunk, that is saying a lot. Hopefully his Senior Bowl and NFL Combine performances will bring some clarity to his murky draft stock.