Every single year, an athletic freak, a bowl game hero, or a workout warrior is terribly overvalued. They are drafted much higher than they should be and earn the dreaded “bust” label. Every team has a horror story about overvaluing a player only to watch him fizzle out of the league. From now until the NFL Draft we will be spotlighting guys who could carry that potential bust title.
While there is always an inherent risk involved with the draft, not all picks and players are created equal. Some teams opt to get “safe” picks. A player that may not have the upside to be a hall of fame caliber player, but could be a high level effective starter for a decade. Some teams on the other hand, push their chips to the middle of the table and go all in on raw but unrefined talent.
When it works, the GM looks like a genius for making the draft pick. When it goes awry and the player is a bust, the GM and coach could end up on the chopping block. For every Patrick Mahomes, there is five Clelin Ferrel’s. There is no shortage of guys with immense upside in this draft, but buyer beware; it could mean the unemployment line for the executives who swing and miss.
David Ojabo
Junior
Edge Rusher
Michigan
6’5 250 lbs
2021 Stats: 14 games played, 35 total tackles, 12 TFLs, 11 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 3 PBUs
Bio
David Ojabo did not have what you would think of as a traditional path to playing football. The well traveled Junior edge rusher was born in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, where a different kind of football is the nations pastime. His family immigrated to Scotland when Ojabo was 7 years old. Where he was more likely to pick up a golf club that to pick up a pig skin.
Ojabo was a gifted basketball and soccer player in Scotland but he felt as though his ceiling was limited in the UK. So at the age of 15 Ojabo moved stateside, by himself and settled in Blairstown, New Jersey.
Attending Blairstown Academy for his sophomore year of high school, Ojabo had no concept of the game of football. He was a soccer and basketball player for the school. But one day after talking to his friend and future Ravens first round draft pick (Odafe Oweh) he walked into the head football coach’s office and asked if he could try out for the team the next year.
Hard to deny a 6’3 230 lb kid a chance to play a game where “bigger people beat up little people” (yes I’m an Eagles fan and quoting Chip Kelly made me nauseous). As you can imagine it wasn’t easy learning the game from scratch. Ojabo hadn’t even watched much football let alone played it. He had to learn everything from how to get into a 3-point stance, to how to buckle his chin strap.
But his athleticism won the day, before his first year playing organized football was over he had scholarship offers from a dozen schools. The chance to mold an athletic freak was too tantalizing to pass up for programs. He ultimately decided to attend The University of Michigan.
Success didn’t come immediately at Michigan, he was still learning the game and pure athleticism alone doesn’t win at a power five school. Despite being named as the scout team player of the year, he didn’t see the field at all in 2019 and in 2020 Ojabo only made one tackle.
This previous season is when he took off. Ojabo and potential number one draft pick Aidan Hutchinson made up one of the most dynamic duos in college football. Ojabo registered 11 sacks and helped Michigan get to the college football playoffs for the first time. Despite registering an 11 sack season, Ojabo ended the season with almost as many question marks as he started with. Despite being seen as still very raw, Ojabo has declared for the NFL Draft.
Strengths
Length
Coming in at 6’5 with an even longer wingspan, Ojabo has the build to become a legitimate 4-3 defensive end.
Speed
Ojabo might end up being the fastest edge rusher in his class. He was posting sub-11 second 100m dash numbers in high school as a sprinter. He uses that speed to bust by potential blockers off the edge. He has no issues running down even the fastest of quarterbacks from behind.
Bend
Ojabo’s agility and balance are both near elite. His background in soccer and basketball may have delayed the start of his football career, but the balance and lateral mobility it gave him were welcomed additions to his toolbox. He has no issues being the low man despite his 6’5 frame.
Weaknesses
Lack of experience
As stated, Ojabo has only played football for a few years. He is extremely raw and still learning the nuances of the game. After only one year of meaningful playing time at Michigan, he will be asked to play against NFL talents. It’s hard to imagine him having a smooth transition.
Pass rush moves
Most guys get knocked for not having a second or third pass rush move, Ojabo doesn’t have a first move. Ojabo really relies on his athleticism and length to win pass rush reps. NFL offensive tackles will not just simply give him the edge. There will be times where his bend and quick jump get him a free run at the quarterback, but more times than not he will be stifled by a deep set and forced to work inside.
Weight
Ojabo is listed at 250 pounds, which for a normal person would be plenty big; but at 6’5 he is very lanky. If he is to play with a hand in the dirt, he’s gonna have to gain 15-20 pounds to avoid getting bullied at the point of attack. We’ve seen long and lean pass rushers win at the NFL level, but they are supremely gifted technically and use skill to make up for a lack of pure strength.
Run defending
Ojabo is purely a pass rusher. He is nothing short of a liability against the run. Teams actively ran away from Aidan Hutchinson, a fantastic run defender, and right at Ojabo. On the year he only registered 1 tackle for a loss that was not a sack. Only once did he bring down a ball carrier in the backfield.
He often vacates his gap responsibility and allowed quite a few big gains. There were half a dozen runs directly at him for substantial yards in Michigans lone loss to Michigan State this season.
He only registered 35 total tackles on the year, meaning almost 1/3rd of his total was hitting the quarterback. He may be relegated to a 3rd down specialist until he develops into a respectable run defender. It’s hard to justify using a top 50 draft pick on a guy who can only play situational football.
Easy matchups
Playing on the same defensive line as a Heisman finalist sure makes life easy. Ojabo had that luxury this past season. He consistently got one on one looks, without even having the fear of being chipped out of the backfield. Opposing teams were often sliding their protections away from Ojabo, opting to double Hutchinson as well as keeping their running back in to help out. Meanwhile Ojabo had the luxury only having to beat one man to get home. How much production would he have had if he was the focal point of a defensive line?
Hand Fighting
One of the short comings that makes Ojabo so ineffective against the run is his lack of hand technique. As fast as he is, when an offensive lineman gets his paws inside his pads, he is essentially out of the play. He needs to get better at disengaging and fighting through blocks.
Summary
Ojabo is a great story, and from everything I’ve read and heard; a great kid with great work ethic. But is someone so raw and so specialized worth a first round investment? Ojabo may not make an impact in anything other than clear passing situations for a few years, if ever.
Almost every mock draft you see has Ojabo going within the first 25 picks. It’s a passing league, so guys that can hit the quarterback are in high demand. I just find it hard justifying the use of a precious first rounder on a guy who can’t impact the game on an every down basis. He is currently my 37th ranked prospect and to be honest he probably is not the 37th best player right now. He is in that slot based solely on his upside and work ethic. I’d love for the kid to materialize into a perennial double digit sack guy, I just don’t see it happening.