Gonzaga is not only the best team in the country but also touts legitimate NBA draft prospects including consensus top 5 pick, Jalen Suggs.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs look to continue their undefeated campaign against San Diego in a West Coast Conference battle. To call this a battle is generous though, as Gonzaga has hardly been challenged by any team in the NCAA this year and it would be the surprise of the season if 2-6 San Deigo dethroned the #1 team in the country. The real reason this game is on the MIP radar is because it is yet another chance to see Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Drew Timme and Joel Ayayi. All four prospects are going to end up getting a chance in the NBA and it should surprise no one if at least three of them hear their name called on draft night.
Gonzaga Bulldogs: As mentioned above, Gonzaga potentially has four players that will end up in the NBA in some capacity next year. Over the years, Mark Few has been able to build a mid-major program in a relatively unknown conference into a perennial powerhouse that has continued to produce NBA draft prospects at an increasing rate. This year, the Zags have four different men who have a chance to make a difference at the NBA level.
Joel Ayayi: A three year player in Mark Few’s system, Ayayi has seen an increase in production correlating with his increase in minutes. Ayayi has a chance to be selected in the second round but will most likely end up as an undrafted free agent. At only 20 years old Ayayi will be a risk vs. reward prospect for a team that may need to fill a two way contract slot or add to their G-League roster. His current ceiling is no higher than a bottom of the rotation NBA player but if he is able to get into the right system at the next level and earn minutes as a three point shooter, currently shooting 38.5% on three attempts per) he may be able to find extra bench minutes in situation roles.
Drew Timme: Timme is one of the best big men in the country and has been on NBA radars since the start of the season. Consistent with a steady hand and good footwork in the post, when Timme catches the ball in deep it is almost always going in. The problem with Timme is that his game reflects NBA big men of old. Without a strong passing game or a three point shot he doesn’t bring enough skill or potential to the table to warrant teams using a first round or high second round pick to draft him. As a traditional big, Timme’s year over year improvement at the free throw line could persuade teams to draft him on the potential of developing a three point shot. Nonetheless, expect Timme to fall in the bottom half of the second round or even go undrafted.
Corey Kispert: The NBA has moved into an era where floor spacing is an essential piece to a championship team. Moving away from the mid-range and more reliant on the three point shot, teams are always looking for the next great shooter. I believe that Corey Kispert is that man. In my opinion, two of the best comparisons for Kispert at the next level are Joe Harris and Kyle Korver.
Player | PPG | AST | RPG | FT% | 3PT% |
Corey Kispert | 20.6 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 89.4% | 49% |
Kyle Korver | 17.8 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 90.8% | 48% |
Joe Harris | 12.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 60.4% | 40% |
In the table above, Harris, in comparison to Korver and Kispert, is clearly the odd man out during his senior season which would explain why he ended up being drafted at the top of the second round. All three of these players have similar body types and shooting abilities from deep. While their release point may differ, on paper they all bring a team high percentage high volume three point shooting. If Kispert is able to keep up his percentage from deep he should be a lock to be drafted in the late lottery. If he falls farther than that, as some shooters tend to do, he could end up falling into the lap of a contender.
Jalen Suggs: Over the year, freshman Jalen Suggs has made his argument for being not only the best guard but the best player in the draft. A consensus top five pick Suggs shouldn’t expect to spend much time in the green room on draft night. Suggs has shown he can score at all three levels, make elite level passes and efficiently rebound even as a guard. The only thing that may end up holding Suggs back from hearing his name called first on draft night is that he has shown a tendency to turn the ball over at only marginally lower average than he assists (4.9 AST/ 3.0 TOV). If he can manage to decrease his turnover rate for the rest of the season and increase his assists Suggs would put himself in a place to not only lead Gonzaga to the NCAA championship but also guarantee his name called even sooner than fifth.The table above showcases comparable numbers from their senior seasons and while this is an extremely surface comparison the two numbers that stick out are the three point and free throw percentage. Free throw percentage is generally an indicator of a good shooter, or the potential to develop a jumpshot, and Kispert passes the eye test. Expect him to be drafted in the middle of the first round but don’t be shocked if a late lottery team ends up drafting him for extra spacing.
San Diego: San Diego has nothing special on their team. They have faired equally as bad in conference play as they did in out of conference play and their losses have come at the hands of team far more inferior than #1 Gonzaga. This is David vs. Goliath if David didn’t have a sling shot. At no point will San Diego be in this game and if they are it should be a moral victory for the team. San Diego only has two double digit scorers and averages a whopping 65.4 points per game. If Gonzaga doesn’t get off the bus they should still end up beating this team comfortably.
Prediction: Gonzaga 103 – San Diego 68