‘Twas the night before kick off and all through the land. Players slept soundly, with dreams of grand.
Dreams of trucking defenders, interception returns, dreams of big hits, and cornerbacks getting burned. Dreams of camera flashes, of touchdown passes, dreams of putting offensive lines on their….. butts
Dreams about titles, some conference some more, some dreams about trophies and awards galore.
But the one above all, the one lauded by fans, was a bronze little statue, that they call The Heisman
The Heisman Trophy. It is the most prestigious award in all of college football. Awarded to the player (mostly quarterback) who exemplifies excellence. While it isn’t always an indication of success in the NFL, there’s a long and illustrious list of guys with a gold jacket who raised that trophy high in their college days.
Over the last decade, Heisman winners have seemingly come out of nowhere. Since 2009 the preseason favorite has only won the award once, with Marcus Mariota in 2014. So all of these preseason rankings are nothing more than a guideline of who to keep an eye on. If the brilliant oddsmakers in Las Vegas overlook players on their odds book, a humble blogger will most certainly miss on a few of these projections.
As is tradition, the Heisman watchlists are flooded with quarterbacks. 12 of the top 15 players with the best odds to win the award are QBs. You can’t blame the pundits though, 20 of the last 30 winners have been the young men under center. When you touch the ball on every offensive possession it really helps build a resume.
A lot of people like to say the award should be reclassified as “The most outstanding player on offense” as opposed to the current definition of “most outstanding player”. An exclusively defensive player has never won the award. The only player to win the award while primarily playing defense was Michigan CB Charles Woodson, and he also doubled as the most prolific returner in the nation.
Will preseason favorite Spencer Rattler take home the award? Will JT Daniels or Sam Howell be raising the bronze statue at years end? Will we have back to back years of non-quarterback winners for the first time since Ron Dayne and Ricky Williams won them in 1998 and 1999 respectively? Will we finally see a defender added to the Heisman House ?
Disclaimer: These odds are from https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/heisman-trophy/ Odds may differ on other sites. This is not a betting guide.
The Favorites
Spencer Rattler
QB Oklahoma
+650
Spencer Rattler is garnering the most Heisman hype in the nation right now. Many people point to the very QB friendly scheme Lincoln Riley has installed in Norman as a primary reason. In the last 5 years he has coached 2 Heisman winning quarterbacks and another runner up quarterback.
We can’t discount the kid out on the field though. He is a dual threat QB, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 28 TD’s while chipping in another 6 TD’s on the ground. While he had the struggles you expect from a first year starter, he finished the year on the high note.
Oklahoma dismantled the Florida Gators in the Cotton Bowl 55-20. Rattler did his part contributing nearly 300 yards through the air and on the ground, with 4 touchdowns. He looks to carry that momentum into the 2021 season. With the benefit of a normal offseason program, and a years worth of team chemistry behind him; he could make last seasons numbers look pedestrian.
Adding to his terrific end to the season and immense talent, he has the benefit of a very favorable schedule. Only two of The Sooners twelve scheduled games come against defenses that ranked in the top 25 nationally last season. Add in a few contests that are bound to be shootouts, and Rattler should have the type of numbers you see from past Heisman winners.
JT Daniels
QB Georgia
+1000
JT Daniels has had arguably the most interesting journey of any starting quarterback in the nation, let alone a Heisman favorite. Daniels started off his college career with tons of hype and sky high expectations. He was the Gatorade and Maxpreps player of the year in 2017, after he led the historic Mater Dei Academy to an undefeated season culminating in a national championship.
Initially signing with USC, he won the job outright as a true freshman in less than a month of camp. Everything seemed to be going the way people expected, until it didn’t. College proved to be a whole new test for Daniels, leading the Trojans to a disappointing 5-7 record and only throwing 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions over 11 games
While it’s easy to chalk up his freshman year to growing pains, Daniels never got the chance to prove himself at USC after that year. On opening day of his sophomore year, Daniels suffered a devastating ACL tear. Kedon Slovis stepped in and performed excellent, asserting himself as the Trojans QB1.
After announcing his intentions to transfer to Georgia, the talking heads were unsure if he would ever be able to recover. He ultimately lost a 4 man battle in training camp, being relegated to the 3rd string QB, and became an afterthought on a national level. But before the year was out he would take over as the man for the Bulldogs. In a turn of events he was inserted as the starter for the Bulldogs week 7 matchup against Mississippi State. All Daniels did was throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns.
He never relinquished the job after that game. Going 4-0 down the stretch, while throwing for 1,231 yards and 10 touchdowns; and leading the Bulldogs to a Peach Bowl win. Now with a full year under his belt, the benefit of a real offseason, and a job that is unquestionably his; Daniels looks primed to put his name on the map once more.
The SEC is more wide open than it has been in years. The Bulldogs retained a large part of their core and have a real shot to win the division. An opening week win over Clemson will certainly help Losing WR George Pickens will hurt, but if Daniels can put up similar numbers in a full season and help Georgia win the SEC; he will most certainly be in New York at seasons end.
D.J Uiagalelei
QB Clemson
+1100
A new era dawns on Clemson football. Gone is Trevor Lawrence, and his understudy is ready to continue their prominence in the college football landscape.
Last year Uiagalelei showed that he has the talent to keep the wins rolling for Clemson. While Lawrence was in Covid protocol, the team didn’t miss a beat. He took Notre Dame to the brink in a heartbreaking double overtime loss, and dominated an overmatched Boston College squad. In his two starts he completed nearly 70% of his attempts for 781 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air, wile chipping in another 4 on the ground.
In his his limited action he has shown all the makings of someone who could take home the Heisman. He is a dual threat, plays for a contending program, and has the benefit of playing a relatively easy conference schedule. It’s not without noting, that unlike JT Daniels of Georgia who will be without his top receiver George Pickens, D.J. Uiagalelei will have the benefit of playing with top tier WR Justyn Ross.
There are only two things going against him, his relative inexperience leading the team and Clemson’s history. They’ve spent the last six years with arguably the best QB in college football (Deshaun Watson 2015-2017 and the aforementioned Lawerence from 2017-2020) yet have never produced a Heisman winner in the history of the program.
Bryce Young
QB Alabama
+1100
Alabama, unlike Clemson seems to have a revolving door of quarterbacks that are all capable of leading them to success. In the same time period that Clemson was lead by Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, Alabama started five different quarterbacks. All five led the Tide to the playoffs, and four of the five helped them win a National Championship. I’m sure Alabama is hoping to go 6 for 6.
Bryce Young was one of the most talented prospects in the country when he committed to Alabama. He was the #1 quarterback in the state of California and an AP All-American at Mater Dei High School, throwing for 4,500 yards and 58 touchdowns his senior year. After originally committing to USC, he changed his mind at the 25th hour and took his talents to Tuscaloosa.
Unlike the first three young men on our list, we truly have no idea how Bryce Young will perform. He has only thrown 22 passes in his college career and all of them came in garbage time. His accuracy in that limited time could be a mild cause for concern. But most 19 year olds don’t look great coming in cold against SEC defenses, even when the game is already won.
Taking away the inexperience and mild accuracy issues in the small sample size, he has the tools to keep the Tide rolling (pun clearly intended). He has an above average arm and is a real threat with his legs. He showed excellent poise in his high school career and his scouting profile points to him having a high football IQ.
He’s definitely the most “boom or bust” of all the Heisman favorites. Some analysts feel like a lot of the load will be falling on Young after the losses of Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
That could either really help or really hurt his Heisman prospects. If he excels and can keep the offense rolling in the same fashion as last year, he will not be +1100 odds for long. But if his slight frame gets him hurt, or the first year jitters overwhelm him, Saban will not hesitate to sit him down.
Sam Howell
QB North Carolina
+1600
Coming from a school that has been known for its basketball programs is potential number one pick, Sam Howell.
Howell and UNC’s offense lit the college football world on fire last year, putting up numbers that would make PAC12 teams blush. They boat raced teams to the tune of 41 points and 537 yards of offense per contest, good for 9th best in the country. The man under center had a huge hand in that, throwing for 3,600 yards and 30 touchdowns; a year after throwing for 3600 yards and 38 touchdowns.
Howell has a great tool box that allows him to make plays few others can. He’s got a rifle for an arm and can make every throw on the field. He has great instincts, touch and accuracy in tight windows completing 65% of his passes. He also protects the ball sporting a 68:14 TD:INT ratio. To top it off, he is a very good athlete. His numbers may not show gaudy rushing numbers, but he uses his legs to extend plays and get into the end zone.
This season will arguably be his biggest test ever. The whole country is on notice. He is no longer a freshman sensation playing for a team lingering in the top 25, He is the quarterback of a top ten team with number one draft pick buzz. Defenses bring their A-game for these type of guys. It also doesn’t help that he lost his four most impactful weapons to the NFL draft in April.
If he keeps his pace going he will own every single quarterback record for the Tar Heels and possibly be the first ever Heisman winner for the program. But the question is will he?
Honorable Mentions
.As I said earlier the preseason favorite has only managed to take home the award once in the last twelve years. If you’re a betting person, this next section may be where you find the best bang for your buck. There’s a blend of proven players and young guys with high upside, all with the chance to put up serious numbers for a contender.
C.J Stroud
QB Ohio State
+1600
Matt Corral
QB Ole Miss
+2200
D’Eriq King
QB Miami
+2500
Kedon Slovis
QB USC
+2800
The Non Quarterbacks
After giving the love to the favorites, who are all quarterbacks, it seems like a good time to remind everyone that more than one position exists. While quarterbacks have won a majority of the Heismans in the last 2 decades. We’ve seen some crazy performances at the running back and wide receiver positions, so it is not out of the question.
Bijan Robinson
RB Texas
+3000
Breece Hall
RB Iowa State
+4000
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB Alabama
+5000
Master Teague
RB Ohio State
+5000
Tank Bigsby
RB Auburn
+6600
Marcus Major
RB Oklahoma
+6600