Jalen Johnson: 2021 Scouting Report

Bio and Measurables:

Strengths: Jalen Johnson may have took time away from Duke to work on his game before the draft, but we were still able to see why he has lottery pick potential in the games he played. Much like Barnes, Johnson has physical abilities you can’t teach. His size and leaping ability give him the ability to play on both ends effectively. Johnson’s game shines on more so on the offensive end. He has the dribbling skills to take rebound end to end and finish at the rim but can also play off ball in the half court, primarily as a cutter. Capitalizing on his ability to play above the rim, when Johnson can get away from his defender and make a play to the rim he is extremely efficient. He also showed promise as the screener in the PNR, being able to catch the ball in stride, turn and rise for a layup or dunk. At the next level a team will be able to utilize Johnson in a cutter role or place him in the dunker spot. While he may not have the ball-handling skill to command an offense he has shown flashes of being a willing passer providing his teammates open looks at the basket. Outside of 8ft he has shown an ability to knock down the occasional three point shot and mid-range jumper. At 44% during his time at Duke the number is a bit deceiving because it was only on 18 attempts. However, his willingness to space the floor and expand his range should encourage teams that he will continue to improve at the next level. Defensively, he has shown that he has the ability to guard forwards and can switch on the occasional small ball five. His size and athletic ability helped him register both a steal and block per game, finding himself in passing lanes and capitalizing on his ability to help on team defense. I would mark his current defensive ability as potential more so than product. While the numbers are encouraging he still has to make major improvements to be serviceable at the next level. 

Areas of Improvement: Johnson will most likely be selected in the lottery on Thursday night but based on some of his areas of improvement I wouldn’t be surprised if he slides a bit outside. For everything Johnson does right on the floor it feels like his draft position hinges on how teams gauge his potential. With all the size and athleticism he touts, Johnson’s offensive and defensive ability at the next level still bring question marks. To start on the offensive side of the ball, his jumpshot doesn’t seem to be consistent or fluid. When Johnson shoots the ball from the floor or at the free throw line it feels like he takes a brief pause at the shoulder before following through. This brief pause could be one of the main factors ailing Johnson at the free throw line (62%) and in his consistency outside of 8ft. As most of his shots came from above and around the rim his field goal percentage is a bit deceiving and should be considered when looking at his surface level numbers. In addition to his jumpshot’s lack of fluidity he also hasn’t shown an ability to create his own shot or get infront of his on-ball defender. Outside of an initial jab step and break to the basket Johnson does not have other moves to help him get open looks. If a defender is able to stay in front of Johnson on the initial jab step they can usually force the ball out of his hand or he takes a low percentage shot. Turnovers along with foul trouble go hand in hand for Johnson as it feels like the majority of his turnovers are offensive fouls. When he is able to get around the first defender and the help defender slides, he doesn’t have the court vision or dribbling skills to move the ball before he turns it over by  losing control or barreling into the help defense. Staying on the court will be extremely important at the next level and Johnson won’t need to take bad fouls at the rate he did in college. As he grows he should work on being able to create his own shot, keep his dribble and limit his turnovers on the offensive end. Defensively, I believe the majority of his issues can be improved upon with effort, positioning and developmental coaching. He seems to be able to stay with certain defenders but also finds himself stuck in quicksand on other possessions. The best case scenario is that as the level of play rises his commitment to the defensive end on a possession-by-possession basis will also rise and his lateral quickness won’t be an issue. However, the worst case scenario is that Johnson won’t be able to keep up with the speed of the game at the next level and his heavy feet will make it hard to defend NBA caliber forwards. In this regard, only time will tell but should be addressed when he gets into an organization. In addition to his lateral quickness, his NBA coaching staff will have to work with him on positioning when defending the PNR. It felt like at the college level he would often get lost in “no mans land” when trying to defend the PNR leading to a basket, foul or both depending on the situation. In a league where so many teams will attack you in a PNR or PNP situation it will be extremely important to make sure Johnson improves in that area. 

External Factors: Johnson left Duke early this year and instead took the past few months to focus on the draft. While the decision was highly scrutinized by media and fans alike, Johnson’s commitment to the next level should still encourage organizations to select him on draft night. 

Medical History: Johnson battled a foot injury before opting out of the season to prioritize his health. Outside of this foot injury, he has had no other medical concerns.

Summary: In my opinion, the unknown in regards to Johnson and his play will hurt his stock on draft night. While I do believe that he made the best decision for himself when he stepped away from Duke to focus on the draft, it would be easier to project where he lands if he had more games under his belt. Overall, his size and athleticism will keep him in the league and help him gain development minutes. If he can stay on the floor and put in the effort to work on his jumpshot, he has the ability to become an extremely valuable piece to a contending organization in the future. As I currently see it, he will end up being a top of the rotation player with an opportunity to grow into a starter as he gains experience. 

MIP Projection: Low Lottery Pick (#13 Indiana Pacers)