As mentioned yesterday in our NCAA ranking, the Big East had a very good week. Upsets and emerging stars dominated headlines. Can three teams in our stock report recreate this success while the other two work on stopping their free fall?
Teams on the Rise:
Seton Hall Pirates: The Pirates appeared on our stock report as the honorable mention last week because of their upset potential. Well, they are a team on the rise this week because they were able to overcome an eleven point second half deficit and upset #4 Michigan. For many Pirates fans it felt like payback from the phantom foul over thirty years ago as Michigan came up short from the free throw line in the final seconds. For everyone who doesn’t remember the phantom foul to decide the 1989 NCAA Championship, we have included the play below. Coming back to the present this Seton Hall team is underrated. They can shoot the ball from outside, have playmakers at every position and play a defense that can frustrate even the best teams in the country. Kevin Willard and company missed the tournament last year partially because they faltered in a tough non-conference schedule but last year seems to be the exception to the rule. Even though they dropped a thriller to Ohio State yesterday, they are back at it tonight against Cal. Expect the Pirates to get back on track.
BYU Cougars: College basketball is crowded. That is my explanation as to why BYU wasn’t considered a top twenty five team in the first two weeks of the season. This was corrected in the latest top 25 poll and you should see the Cougars stay in the top twenty five for some time going forward. After blowing out Oregon, the Cougars face off against Utah this Saturday which is their next real challenge. While their non-conference schedule isn’t filled with top tier basketball programs, if they are able to get past Utah, Utah State and Creighton they will set themselves on a collision course with Gonzaga in the WCC. Overall, they are on the rise and will be a tournament team come March. How far will they go? It will depend on how well the team improves around Alex Barcello as the season progresses.
Teams Falling Out:
Oregon Ducks: It isn’t time to hit the panic button in Oregon because it is extremely early in the season. However, getting blown out like they did against BYU has to raise some level of concern. Even though the college basketball playing field is starting to level, no team especially a team ranked in the top 15 should be dominated like they were. With a few easier games coming up on paper they should be able to maintain their ranked status heading into PAC-12 play. Our concern isn’t necessarily about the next few games though. Their first matchup against a team close to their perceived caliber and they faltered immensely. Playing in the “Conference of Champions” there is no easy game and Oregon will need to buckle down on both ends to continue to compete at the level many analysts expected. Hopefully their next three games put them back on track ahead of Arizona State on December 5th.
Illinois Fighting Illini: The fighting Illini are falling and fast. When this was originally written, it was under the expectation that they would beat Cincinnati with the return of Kofi Cockburn. Our original assessment was as follows:
Even though they ended up falling to Marquette in their most recent game, it has to come with context. Kofi Cockburn has been suspended and losing a player that is expected to have an All-American season is huge. Illinois is here because of the let down, which feels similar to their March hopes last year. Some programs just can’t get over the hump and playing a team like the Golden Eagles, who may be a tournament team if they are able to match this pace all season, is a good litmus test for the Illini and they fell short. Factoring in Cockburn may have changed the game completely and we will see how the team plays going forward However, we believe that this team this program is a situation to monitor.
In the final sentence we highlighted them as a team to monitor and that is exactly what they are. Maybe it was the infusion of Cockburn into the lineup and a lack of chemistry, maybe it was just an off night but the Big Ten feels wide open. Illinois needs to go back to the drawing board because something isn’t working. The only benefit is that these kinks can be worked out now before we get to March but fans should be far more concerned than they would have been two days ago.
Honorable Mention:
St. Bonaventure Bonnies: The evolution of the Bonnies has been progressive. A Cinderella story, a mid-major powerhouse and now a top twenty five program. Programing building and recruiting for all four years has put the Bonnies in a position to compete with any team in the country. Even though they are ranked #16 in this weeks AP poll, I believe they should be even higher. They have played power conference programs and remain undefeated. I can’t find a reason that Tennessee or Illinois should be ranked above them and I believe that this will shake out as the season goes on. While I am not expecting them to be the next Gonzaga, they are going to be a real threat into March.