Ochai Agbaji cut down the nets this year after competing for National Player of the Year honors as the leading man for the Kansas Jayhawks. Betting on himself and returning for his senior season, Agbaji has seen his stock rise from a second round project pick to a legitimate rotation player coming out of the first round. Will he continue to rise in the upcoming months?
Ochai Agbaji has added his name to the long list of prospects that improved year over year in college, carving out potential lottery draft stock. If you would like to learn exactly where Agbaji ranks on MIP 99, read more here!
Bio and Measurables:
| Age | 21 |
| Height | 6-5 |
| Weight | 210lb |
| Position | Guard |
| College | Kansas |
| Draft Projection | Late Lottery Pick |
| Role | Rotation Player |
| MPG | 35.0 |
| PPG | 19.3 |
| RPG | 5.2 |
| APG | 1.6 |
| STL | 0.8 |
| TO | 2.1 |
| FG% (3PT%) | 47.0 (40.0) |
MIP Historical Projection:
2/20/2021 Agbaji, in my opinion, deserves to be selected in the NBA draft this year (2021). The junior guard is a bit older than Shannon Jr. and has a lower ceiling but still has all the intangibles to be a nice rotation piece at the next level. During his three years as a Jayhawk, Agbaji has regressed in his overall field goal percentage but has made improvements from behind the arc and at the free throw line. This should be both concerning and intriguing for NBA teams. On one hand an inefficient player from the floor doesn’t deserve minutes in an NBA rotation however, if Agbaji can become a reliable three point threat he will open up the floor for himself and his teammates. At 6-5 he, like Shannon, has good size for a two guard and should have no problem adjusting to the next level physically. The concern hurting his draft stock, other than a regression in FG%, is that he doesn’t necessarily do anything well. An average rebounder, passer and dribbler he has a tendency to over commit on defense leading to fouls. Even with his frame, he is only drawing two free throws a game. Agbaji has an above average step off the dribble and should be using this to his advantage to draw contact in the paint when a defender bites on a fake from behind the arc. Yet, this is not the case. Expect Agbaji to be drafted, his athleticism and three point shooting should put him in the second round conversation. If he is able to find a more efficient play style down the stretch he could creep up into the first round as optimism on his NBA viability rises. MIP Projection: Early 2nd Round (32-44)
Strengths: Clearly based on our profile over a year ago, we made some mistakes in our process. Focusing on Agbaji, he had major year over year improvement between his junior and senior season. He found his footing at the college level, worked hard and made himself a real NBA rotation player going forward. Walking into the league he should find himself recieving minutes based on his ability to knock down the three pointer on his own but also primarily from catch and shoot attempts. A 40.7% three point shooter on over six attempts per game, 85.4% of the threes he connected on came from catch and shoot attempts. Aiding in his blistering catch and shoot percentage is a quick release and size to help him shoot over smaller defenders. These strengths will make it easier for him to fit into an NBA rotation, every team in the league is looking for high value floor spacers that can catch and shoot. Placing him next to shot creators and franchise cornerstones will only elevate the overall success of the team. An average dribbler, Agbaji isn’t going to do anything eye popping with the ball in his hands but he can put it on the floor and get to the rim when challenged from beyond the arc. Keeping defenders honest and also having the skillset to penetrate when necessary should only continue to improve as he develops. His preference is to finish on the right side of the rim but isn’t a liability if he is coming from the left. He has shown minor flashes of a developing mid-range but he has yet to shown consistency there. Projecting his development a mid range shot would allow him to be even more active as the ball handler or screener in pick and roll action. In transition he runs the floor extremely well and always seems to be in the right spot. Playing without the ball in his hands he can file the lane correctly, set up on the wing or hurt you on a back door cut. Agbaji always seems to be in motion and teams are going to have to work to stay with him. Even though he doesn’t “jump out of the gym” when he gets to the basket with a head of steam, specifically on the fast break, he can play above the rim. Based on his shooting splits, his free throw percentage is a bit subpar but should improve with time. Defensively, Agbaji has immense potential. He can play on or off the ball uses his size and wingspan to get into passing lanes with the switchability to guard atleast 1 through 3 in regular lineups. Currently, his defensive upside hinges on potential but based on everything we’ve seen there is no reason he can’t elevate into one of, if not the top 3&D player in this class. Lateral quickness allows him to stay in front of his defenders and has potential to challenge around the rim in team defense situations. He shouldn’t be considers a “rim protector” but is going to be a nice piece to have at the two defensively.
Areas of Improvement: Going forward Agbaji can continue to improve on both sides of the ball. While he can’t necessarily improve athletically, some areas to work around, is his elevation in the half court. Generally he needs unabated momentum to get above the rim. He isn’t going to be the type of player that can take two steps and play above the rim. This isn’t necessarily something the organization that drafts him needs on a nightly basis or ever depending on the role they envision but is something that caps his ceiling to an extent. Offensivley, his lack of creativity with the ball in his hand should be an area of focus. Outside of pump faking on the arc and taking it to the rim, he hasn’t shown the consistent ability to find his own shot. Agbaji isn’t breaking you down with an array of dribble moves or hitting step backs and fades with ease. Some of this untapped/inability to create for himself may be a result of his average first step. Without the ability to get around smaller/faster defenders or even make them work to stay in front, it currently limits his ability to create for himself. Taking this into consideration every indication points to Agbaji finding his niche in the league when he adjusts to pace of play. His year over year improvement is too drastic to ignore. Though he may not have some athletic intangibles that could make the game easier, he will find it elsewhere. Most notably the improvement his three point shooting and developing mid range game could help alleviate any issues he has with shot creation. Inside, you would like to see him get out of the habit of “scoop layups” as a bigger guard he shouldn’t be making the defenders job easier by releasing a layup lower than his usual release point. He was finishing 73% of his shots at the rim but this could be even higher at the next level. Defensively, he isn’t a “lockdown” defender but based on his physical attributes there isn’t any reason he can’t become one.
A few other aspects to monitor that won’t hurt his floor if he doesn’t improve include his inability to be a primary ball handler or top playmaker, improving his rebounding, and considering an adjustment in his release point. Agbaji is a solid shooter and if it isn’t broken you shouldn’t try to fix it however, it may help improve his three point percentage.
External Factors: Agbaji was a four star prospect coming out of high school and averaged 27.6 points per game his senior season. His parents both played college basketball at Wisconsin-Milwaukee where his father was lettered once and his mother four times. Their knowledge of the game helped their son develop into the player he is today. Agbaji also helped lead Kansas to the national championship cutting down the nets in his final season.
Medical History: In his four year career at Kansas, Agbaji has never missed major time. In the last three years, he has played and started in 96 out of their 97 games. His ability to stay healthy will be extremely important in his future development.
Summary: Overall, Agbaji bet on himself and made the conscious decision to come back to school. The Kansas senior took the downward trajectory of his junior year and completely turned it around. He found a way to improve his percentage from the field, shoot better from the free throw line, and become an elite three point shooter in college basketball. We called his step “above average” last year but the pace of play in the NBA may change that. Agbaji has finally put it all together and we are looking forward to watching him succeed at the next level. In a league that generally craves younger talent than the senior Agbaji his play will force their hand to bet on one of the best college basketball has to offer. On pace to be one of the newest 3&D players in the league, he could have a comparable trajectory to Desmond Bane.
MIP Projection: Late Lottery Pick – Mid 1st (14-20)