With more than one team trying on Cinderella’s glass slipper to see if the shoe fits, what are the real odds each team in the Sweet Sixteen can win it all?
Managing expectations when your team makes it out of the first weekend can be hard. Hype takes over, the media falls in love and many teams take luck and matchups for skill and a real chance to win it all. While we aren’t saying it’s impossible any of the remaining teams win the whole thing for most, it’s highly unlikely. Below, we broke down where each remaining team stands within the scope of winning the championship.
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The Favorites
1. Arizona
The Wildcats were pushed in the round of 32 by a TCU team that came to play. Yet, the most encouraging part of this game was that instead of crumbling to the pressure they elevated their game. A deep team featuring two NBA level talents in Christian Koloko and Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona is poised to make a run deeper than anyone expected. With Houston and the winner of Michigan/Villanova on the horizon, expect them to continue to get better.
2. Gonzaga
Will this finally be the year? The Zags seem to be in a position to finally hoist the trophy. A combination of size, NBA level talent, depth and experience, Gonzaga should be your favorite to win the national championship. The only reason they aren’t ranked #1? Coach K and his final Duke Blue Devils team could be their matchup in the elite eight. A heavyweight title fight taken out of a TV show, if the Zags can get past a fun Arkansas team and Duke. It is hard to imagine another final four team taking them out.
3. Duke
A retirement tour that feels like it may be ending sooner than expected, Coach K and the Blue Devils barely escaped the first weekend. Michigan State had them on the ropes and couldn’t make enough shots to put them away. Paolo Banchero and company rallied in the last five minutes after trailing, lining up a meeting with Texas Tech. The three seed in the bracket, Duke feels destined to face Gonzaga in the elite eight. If they can get past the Zags, it is hard to foresee Coach K’s final game without cutting down the net.
Fun Picks
4. Purdue
The Boilermakers find themselves 4th on this list because of their experience in the final, which is essentially zero. While they have been to regional finals in the past, they haven’t made it past the elite eight since the 60’s. With Ivey, Edey and Williams they have the size and NBA power to compete with anyone in the country it comes down to self belief and coaching. If Painter can outclass the rest of the field Purdue should be the last team standing. However, with the recent failures of the B1G in the field of 68, Boilermaker fans should be sweating all of their matchups going forward. Which starts with this tournaments Cinderella.
5. UCLA
UCLA v. UNC is your coin flip matchup. Even though either team could advance to the next round, UCLA is built for the long haul. The Bruins have Final Four experience as recently as last year and know what it takes to win in the margins. While the size of UNC could frustrate them to an extent, it would help Cronin prepare for an oversized Purdue in the Elite Eight. Sprinkle in some final four magic or chaos in the West and you could see UCLA in the championship.
6. Villanova
The Wildcats have a “please go away” vibe this year. Nobody in the national media is really picking them to win the whole thing, let alone get out of their region. The Cats struggle against size which almost every other team has and rely heavily on their senior leadership and outside shooting. With this being said though, if their offense is flowing and threes are falling…it doesn’t matter how “big” the opponent is because their back will go against the wall. Four great shooting games is a lot to ask but it doesn’t seem improbable given their first two games.
7. Houston
You’ve heard of two-way players but this is a two way team. Kelvin Sampson has found the balance between offense and defense, putting Houston squarely in the mix to be a fun and sneaky championship pick. A possible matchup combination of Arizona/Villanova looms large which is why they are ranked 7th. Beating both of those teams and still being two games away from cutting down the nets sounds exhausting, we will find out if the Cougars are up to the task.
8. North Carolina
UNC narrowly avoided an all-time NCAA collapse against the Baylor Bears, the key being avoided. With first year coach Hubert Davis the Tar Heels have found themselves back in the second weekend. A combination of size and skill, UNC is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Solid guard play and the front court dominance given to them by transfer Brady Manek and Armando Bacot should put UCLA on upset alert. As we have mentioned it is a coin flip matchup, if UNC can keep the UCLA stars off the glass and cut down on second chance points, you may just find them in the elite eight. Measuring up against the size of Purdue would be much harder to overcome which is why the Tar Heels are slotting in at #8. Any chance to move up the list hinges on the Peacocks of St. Peter’s.
High Seed High Drama
9. & 10. Kansas & Providence
Take this how you want. Kansas and Providence are facing off in the sweet sixteen and one of them will end up going home. They essentially have the same odds to hoist the title even though they are the two highest seeds reaming in their region. It would be more likely that Kansas ends up in the Final Four but anything past that feels unrealistic. Knocking off Miami or Iowa State is going to be a test for both of these teams as it feels like they are both scheduled for a “let down” game. Providence is in the midst of a dram season but underperformed in the Big East Tournament. Even though they cruised through the first weekend, Kansas is going to be their first real test of the tournament. One of these teams will show their true identity in the coming days, but don’t be surprised if they both end up without a net to cut down.
11. Texas Tech
Nobody expected the Red Raiders to be here, except them. Missing the AP Top 25 in the first week of the poll, only receiving a total 17 votes, Tech went on to go 25-9 in the regular season. Exceeding their potential in the life after Chris Beard, Mark Adams is a coach of the year finalist and rightfully so. A tough team in every area of the game find themselves ranked 11th, mostly because of their matchups in the next two rounds. Matching up against Duke in the Sweet 16 and the winner of Arkansas/Gonzaga, they have their work cut out for them before even getting to the final four. Both Duke and Gonzaga are championship caliber programs, getting through both seems improbable which means winning the championship is a little something more.
12. Arkansas
Arkansas is a fun team lead by a fun coach, but they just don’t have the horses this year. As close to a Cinderella pick as a 4 seed can be, it would be an incredible display of talent and coaching for the Razorbacks to cut down the net at the beginning of April. An offense primarily driven by JD Notae, without perfection from their leading man they may go home as early as tonight. Similar to Texas Tech, potentially playing two championship caliber programs before the final four is hard to overcome. Expect the Razorbacks to put up a fight but not much more.
Cinderella
13. Miami
The Hurricanes are ranked 12th because of their seeding, not because of their ability to get to the final four. A boom or bust team is hot at the right time and has the fire power to match any remaining offense in the field. Led primarily by Isaiah Wong through the first weekend, he isn’t the only one that can fill the stat sheet up when the Hurricanes need a bucket. Combine that with the experience of Jim Larranega already trying on the glass slipper during his coaching career, and you have a team that could be cutting down their regional nets. Miami also has the best matchups, taking on Iowa State and the winner of Kansas/Providence. All three of these teams are well rounded but aren’t going to present insurmountable matchups like a Gonzaga, Duke or Arizona. The question for “The U” will be, can they keep putting it all together? They had an up and down season and they can’t have a down game if they want to see the final four. Expect them to move past Iowa State and really test their elite eight matchup, anything past that is icing on the cake.
14. Michigan
Michigan has close to no chance to win the championship. An underdog that many believe shouldn’t even be in the tournament, they actually have a chance to get to the elite eight. Villanova is a solid matchup for Michigan. A team led by size is facing off against a team that has struggled all year defending it. If the Wolverines can limit their turnovers and force the Wildcats to work on the offensive end, it could be a closer game than a 2/11 matchup looks on paper. Moving into a matchup with Arizona would give the Wolverines no type of advantage which would almost certainly end their season. It just doesn’t feel like the glass slipper fits here.
15. Iowa State
The Cyclones seem to be the forgotten team in the mix and for anyone outside of their university, for good reason. An under the radar program, full of under the radar players, it doesn’t feel like they were meant to make it out of the first weekend. However, they provided the field of 68 two impressive wins walking into a matchup with the equally impressive Hurricanes. The issue that may plague Iowa State going forward is the lack of scoring depth. Only two players on the roster average double figures and an off night from Izaiah Brockington would spell disaster for the entire team. A true boom or bust roster, it is hard to see them winning another four games let alone their next one.
16. St. Peter’s
A dream team, a dream season and a dream run. St. Peters is your Cinderella through the first weekend. Playing two incredible games, knocking off Kentucky and Murray State in dramatic fashion, this scrappy team from Jersey City has put themselves on the college basketball map. Will this be enough to keep winning? It looks unlikely. Unfortunately for the Peacocks, their region is a buzz saw. Awaiting them in the Sweet 16 is the Purdue Boilermakers, a team that will most likely overpower them with their size and athleticism. To have a chance at winning, the entire team will have to shoot the ball well and limit any type of turnover, especially live ball. If St. Peter’s were to make it through this matchup they could see either UCLA or UNC in the elite eight, a true blood blue of college basketball. It is hard to imagine this run ending with a net coming down for St. Peters but the run to this point has been magical. This team has done more for their program than any other team before them. The University and the basketball team will benefit from this performance for a very long time and that is something special. While they may be ranked 16th, we would love to see this list go up in flames if it meant Shaheen Holloway and company keep playing.