The NFL contracts are higher than they have ever been and it looks like they are going to continue rising. Between record high revenue and multi billion dollar TV deals the NFL is recession proof. And the players are getting a bigger piece of the pie now than they ever have before.
They say it is a quarterback league, the state of the league will tell you this is true. Every single year it seems like teams with elite quarterback play are the ones making deep playoff runs.
It seems like every year earth shattering deals are being made to lock up star quarterbacks, in the hope that they can lead their team to the ultimate glory. Less than two years ago Patrick Mahomes reset the entire market value of the position with a 12 year $500 million deal. Last season Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen set a new record for most guaranteed money in a contract with $150 million guarantee. And now Aaron Rodgers the reigning MVP reportedly just secured a deal that will pay him $50 million per year until his age 42 season, all but guaranteeing he retires in Green Bay.
There is a question though how much is too much to pay a quarterback or any singular player? As we know from current Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford and his history in Detroit as well as the much-maligned Deshaun Watson; it takes more than just a quarterback to win in this league. When the quarterback is taking up over 20% of the salary cap how much of a team can you really put around them? Unless you hit on every single draft pick every year, you need to pay for complimentary talent….. or you just employ the Les Snead strategy
Football is the ultimate team sport. One amazing player can will a team to victory in basketball. One ace pitcher can turn the tide of a series in baseball. One goalie can shut out another team night after night in hockey or soccer. But it takes all 22 men to truly be an elite football team.
One of my favorite facts in football, is that Tom Brady, the GOAT himself, was at no point in his career, the highest paid quarterback in the NFL. As a matter of fact only four quarterbacks that were paid amongst the top-five at their position have won a Super Bowl in the salary cap era. That is dating back to 1994 the first year the NFL had a salary cap in place.
All of this information presents quite a conundrum to NFL franchises. In order to truly compete on a yearly basis you need an elite quarterback. With the exception of Tom Brady you need to pay your elite quarterback above market value. But paying your quarterback an exorbitant sum, All but guarantees you will not win a Super Bowl.
So what is the “winning formula”? Outside of having Tom Brady….. an ascending young quarterback on his rookie deal or a veteran on a friendly deal seem to be the most successful method of winning the big one. Matthew Stafford was the 13th highest paid signal caller. Pat Mahomes, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson we’re all on their rookie deals when they won. Nick Foles was being paid as a backup. Peyton Manning was the 6th highest paid QB when he rode off into the sunset.
All of this is to say, so far teams that have spent a kings ransom on their signal caller have not fared so well in the salary cap era. If anybody can buck that trend it will be guys like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes (who both already have a ring to their names). But if these superstar, high value guys continue to fall short in the postseason; will the era of record-setting QB contracts come to a screeching halt? Likewise will quarterbacks go the route of Tom Brady and put team success over their own bank accounts and hubris of being the highest paid?