Yesterday, it was reported that Chet Holmgren suffered ligament damage in his foot and is undergoing further opinions before the start of the season. With 2023 looming Chet’s injury not only puts pressure on the team but also their future.
****Update Chet Holmgren is out for the season with a Lisfranc injury in his foot, which was suffered in an NBA sanctioned Pro-Am game****
Chet Holmgren was supposed to be the number one pick headed into the 2022 college basketball season. His length, size and ability to play both ends of the floor made him an NBA level “unicorn” that many believed could make the leap from high school. During his time at Gonzaga though analysts and observers began to become skeptical of Holmgren’s abilities when the game turned physical. As some leaned on the eye test to show that he was struggling against stronger players with similar size others based their judgement on a full picture with analytics. Overall, as debate raged throughout the season Holmgren still found his draft stock steadying within the top three, the same place he was projected to be drafted prior to the start of the season. So on paper nothing did change with Holmgren except for growing doubts from the public eye. The Oklahoma City Thunder gladly took the Gonzaga center over presumed number one pick Jabari Smith Jr. and would most likely do it again if given the chance, even with the most recent injury.
Yet, this creates an internal dilemma for the organization in two very specific ways. As a cornerstone player and the presumed franchise centerpiece to pair with Josh Giddey and SGA, this was the year the Thunder were supposed to see what they have and hope for the best. While there was never going to be an expectation to win Holmgren, SGA and Giddey could have brought hope to the sputtering franchise that has been on the outside looking in for so many years. Now with Holmgren’s status to be determined the Thunder have to ask themselves, can he stay healthy, is he the right fit and what do we do with our draft pick this year.
Chet Holmgren’s Health
The new saying, in the world of mobile big men, is that most of them don’t have the means to stay healthy for an entire season which eventually cuts their career short. Three prime examples have been Yao Ming, Greg Oden & Joel Embiid. While all three have been dominant in their own right they all were at the forefront of extremely frequent injuries. Yao and Oden both had their careers cut short and while Embiid continues to fight through each season he continues to get injured in the most unbelievable ways. From broken orbital bones, fractured feet or a torn meniscus, it just seems that big men are slowly coming with a warning label.
The size of these men is what most are concerned about when drafting a center at the top of the board and Holmgren is no exception. Even though he is extremely thin instead of being physically large and imposing the threat of injury is still prevalent. His current frame isn’t physically imposing and his legs are not the strongest in the world but so far it has worked for him, up until now. After landing a bit awkwardly in a PRO-AM game it was revealed he could have ligament damage in his foot which will cause him to miss the entire season. The problem here is that once you sustain an injury at that size it is hard to keep other injuries from piling up as you gain and grow. To rehab the injury sounds good but to then use that same rehabbed foot as a building block to run and jump for 48 minutes a night while you put weight on in the offseason is a tall task. A Lisfranc injury is about as serious as it can get when it comes to a basketball player. The type of injury that can linger, heal incorrectly and continue to plague any athlete long after the initial injury is all on the table for Holmgren. Rehab is going to be a slow grueling process and just because they say he is out for this season doesn’t necessarily mean you will see him active at the start of the 2023-24 season. A silver lining is that medicine has continued to develop and sports medicine is at the forefront of dealing with these injuries are preserving a career. It will truly be a wait and see game with Holmgren and it does not seem the organization will be in any rush to bring him back, especially with the 2023 draft looming.
Right Fit
As a small market team in the midst of an extensive rebuild it is easy enough to take the best player available on the board and keep moving. Writing off concerns about a player is part of the draft process and if you think you have locked in on a franchise altering player the weaknesses he comes with can be strengthened, unless of course they aren’t aspects of his game. Every player comes into the NBA with the need to build on their frame but Holmgren is someone who needs a frame. His ability to play both ways is appealing and we don’t doubt the Thunder would take him again with the second pick if given the chance. Going forward though the right fit can’t only be about what they can do on the court but if they can stay on the court. This may be an oversimplification of the evaluation process but the idea holds true. Looking back at the modern history of big men, players with excessive mass or no mass at all have a tendency to miss large chunks of playing time due to injury. Big men who have an already established frame that can be slimmed down or built upon but wouldn’t be considered “excessive” either way tend to have more success staying healthy. For example Jokic, Giannis and KAT in recent memory were somewhere in the middle. All three have found their way to an NBA level physique because they were slow, steady and had a foundation to build upon. Looking back at big men on both sides of the extreme, Embiid, Oden and Yao, all ended up having lingering issues based on their size. Even Shaq struggled to play more than 60 games in his mid twenties, a time of rapid weight gain, and while he eventually strung together a handful of fully healthy seasons it did catch up to him.
This isn’t saying place red tape around anyone that doesn’t have a frame, it is simply pointing out a pattern of high usage big men with weight questions. Holmgren isn’t the first and certainly won’t be the last player to end up under the mass microscope especially with Victor Wembanyama entering the draft next year.
Draft Pick
This was supposed to be the Thunder’s coming out party. Three strong pieces and a growing rotation could have made Oklahoma City more competitive than they were last season and that is all that matters. Now, the Thunder are stuck playing rebuild one additional year and that puts them in a precarious situation. If the team, without Holmgren, end up with a bottom three record they will share the best odds to land French phenom Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama by all accounts is the defacto number one pick because he plays both ends of the floor is extremely mobile with the basketball and has franchise cornerstone potential. The only issue is that the Thunder just drafted the same type of player and he will be sitting at home the entire season. A draft that is supposed to be naturally deep with talent spanning far into the first round, would Presti double down on Holmgren even after his foot injury? As of right now it is hard to tell but chaos could be on the horizon. The easiest way to avoid any debate is if the Thunder end up anywhere but the first pick. The team could trade down, take a different franchise elevating player and everyone would still go home happy.
The hard way is much more interesting. If the Thunder do land the first pick Wembanyama should be the selection. It would be hard for Presti to go in a different direction especially with the uncertainty surrounding Holmgren. Yet, doubling down with a player who has an identical body type to Holmgren feels like it is make or break for the rebuild. If both end up staying healthy the team would have a decision to make on who is worth keeping and who to send away. While the coaching staff would be pressured to make it work originally, it doesn’t seem feasible to play them at the same time even in the era of position less basketball. Overall, Wembanyama would almost certainly stay with the team while they shopped Holmgren to a new home. Even though this is all extremely long term thinking, an injury like this has to get an organization thinking.
We wish Chet Holmgren a speedy recovery and hope to see him on the court as soon as possible.