As the season winds down, the big boards are taking shape and players are separating themselves from the pack. But the only thing unanimous about this quarterback class is the lack of a QB1. Let’s try to sift through the weeds and dissect these guys.
Almost yearly, even when there is no clear cut #1, a quarterback will rise to the top of the big board and get drafted in the top five. In the beginning of this season it appeared as many as four quarterbacks could go in the top 15. While there still may be a possibility of some signal callers going early, we don’t have any clear cut favorite.
Im not saying we could be looking at a 2013 type of situation in the draft. 2013 was notoriously bad with the first quarterback coming off the board at pick 16 and only 3 QBs having been taken in the first 3 rounds. But there is a glaring deficiency of talent at the quarterback position this year.
Even with the steep drop off in talent, it’s almost certain that a quarterback hungry team will select one of these players early in the draft. So it’s best to get familiar now, because one of these young men could be taking snaps next September for your favorite team.
#4 Kenny Pickett
Pittsburgh
Kenny Pickett has been the hot new name over the last month of the season. Many pegging him as this years Zach Wilson-ish late bloomer. It’s hard to deny what he’s been able to accomplish this season with a Pitt program that’s been mired in mediocrity for quite some time. He has them in contention for a New Years 6 bowl game for the first time since 2005.
Pickett has had a lot to do with their success this year. With him at the helm, Pitt has the #1 scoring offense in all of college football. Pickett is the only quarterback in the country who is in the top 5 of passing yards and touchdowns (40 in total) with only 6 interceptions. He’s also completing 67% of his passes and chipped in 4 scores with his legs. He has moved the ball consistently, failing to score at least 28 points only once this season (a 27-17 win over Clemson).
He’s a surprisingly good athlete, he doesn’t have the raw numbers on the ground like Howell or Malik Willis but he can evade pressure and pick up the necessary yards. As for his arm, his mechanics are rock solid. He can make the throws needed at the next level and he always seems to keep his eyes down field. He’s also a natural leader and has taken the reigns since the end of his true freshman year.
He could stand to improve his decision making, sometimes he trusts his arm a bit too much and he will make an ill advised throw into coverage. He also has a tendency to lock onto one target. Natural ability will let you get away with that in the ACC but it’ll lead to an abundance of turnovers on Sunday’s.
Admittedly Kenny Pickett wasn’t even on my preseason radar as a legitimate top prospect at quarterback . He had been solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Pitt. His career bests were 3,100 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only completed 62% of his passes. He will be 24 by the time he reports for camp in 2022. His age, lack of past production, and past inconsistencies will be a red flag that many teams will have to consider when evaluating him. He is the hot commodity right now, but will his flame fizzle out by the time April comes around?
#3 Sam Howell
North Carolina
On the surface, Sam Howell has put up decent numbers despite losing a majority of his weapons to the 2021 draft. 2700 yards through the air, over 700 on the ground and 31 total TDs as of week 10 are impressive numbers. When you dive a bit deeper you’ll see he has turned the ball over 11 times through 9 games (on pace for his highest total in his three seasons)and his completion percentage has dropped a staggering 5% from last season.
Coming off the heals of a loss to fellow top prospect Kenny Pickett and possibly an even worse win against Wofford, Howell and the Tar Heels are a meager 6-5 and just barely bowl eligible. Will teams chalk up the individual and team regression to a massive loss of talent? Or will they look at the man under center and doubt his ability to lead a team?
Howell could still be the top quarterback taken based on the “things you can’t teach” and the weakness of his class. He has excellent mobility and has a way of getting out of danger. He has racked up over 700 yards on the ground and 9 trips to the end zone this season. While he has a portion of his rushes scripted, he also picks up a hefty chunk of yards improvising. That escapability and speed is all the rage in an NFL dominated by the Lamar Jackson’s and Kyler Murray’s of the world.
He also has great zip on his ball and will be able to make 90% of the throws required to play on Sunday. Nobody will confuse him with Brett Favre when it comes to arm strength, but he has a quick compact throwing motion and is incredibly accurate. His biggest strength in the passing game is his touch. It’s hard to think of a quarterback in this class that throws a prettier looking deep ball, consistently hitting his man in stride.
He will almost certainly be taken in the first round unless a few quarterbacks really take off down the stretch of the season and push him down the board. His experience, athleticism and accuracy will almost assure that.
While Howell has put up good numbers and has stayed in the mix as a top quarterback, his draft stock has certainly taken a dip.
#2 Malik Willis
Liberty
Malik Willis of Liberty was touted as the next of the new breed of quarterback taking the NFL by storm. Every team with a need at QB was hoping he would develop into the next Josh Allen. Small school guy, rifle for an arm and legs like a running back.
He does things on the field that most guys dream they could do. His ability to evade pressure and is unmatched at the collegiate level. He runs so fluidly constantly making defenders look like tackling dummies in the open field. He finds ways to avoid the big hits, seemingly feeling a defender closing in without actually seeing them. He is stoutly built at 225 pounds so he has no problem taking the contact when necessary.
Most guys with speed like that would count it as their biggest asset, but that is merely the cherry on top. He owns a certified canon. The way he effortlessly throws the ball on a rope from multiple arm slots is reminiscent of Patrick Mahomes. With only the flick of his wrist he can push the ball 50 yards down field on a frozen rope. With arm strength like that, he has no issues making all the throws asked of him.
He occasionally makes some ill advised decisions that could cost him at the next level; but his raw ability has allowed him to excel against inferior competition. He could certainly benefit from a “quarterback guru” in the NFL to help him on his decision making.
On the flip side, through Liberty’s first ten games it seems as through the kid who lit CFB on fire last year is still the same quarterback, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. His yards through the air and ground are both down while his turnovers are up. His completion percentage is 2% better and he is on pace to break even with his 2020 touchdown totals.
NFL teams want to see tangible growth, especially playing against lower level competition. He just hasn’t appeared to improve in any significant way this year; leading some to believe he has maxed out his talent and won’t get much better than what we see on Saturday’s.
#1 Matt Corral
Ole Miss
Matt Corral seems to be the savvy pick to be the first quarterback off the board. He is Mahomes-ish in his combination of arm talent and athleticism. He can make nearly every single throw you ask of him from a variety of arm slots. He has the now requisite ability to create with his legs. He has the SEC pedigree, holding down the position for the last 2.5 seasons. He has the ball security that NFL teams love to see.
His penchant for explosive plays has been on display as the man under center for the Rebs’. He’s averaged over 9.5 yards per attempt, racked up 52 touchdowns with his arm, 15 with his legs, accounted for almost 9,000 yards of offense, completed 68% of his passes and has only thrown 20 interceptions against traditionally stout SEC defenses as the starter in Oxford, Mississippi.
Standing at 6’2 205, averaging over 4 yards per carry, with great escapability. He has the new prototypical physical traits NFL teams are looking for. He is excellent on the “quick hitting” pass plays showing phenomenal accuracy on short/mid range throws. He doesn’t have a Malik Willis level rifle of an arm, but arm strength will not be a hinderance or limit a playbook.
So the question is, why isn’t he the consensus top quarterback in the upcoming draft?
As with a lot of young athletic quarterbacks, he leans on his athleticism a bit too much. He has left some throws on the field by vacating the pocket too soon. Even when scrambling you’d like to see him keep his eyes down field a bit more. Losing a trusted target like Elijah Moore has led to him creating on his own a bit more and it’s not always the best play to make.
He also shows a lapse in mechanics at times. He occasionally throws off his back foot and across his body. It hasn’t burned him at Ole Miss too bad, hence his nearly 3:1 TD:INT ratio, but it could catch up with him against better competition. That stuff might work in college and generate a highlight, but unless you have a Brett Favre arm, it will lead to a lot of unnecessary turnovers on Sunday.
Some also see his statistical output as a product of his offense. The Reb’s run a high paced spread offense, creating coverage mismatches where it seems like someone is always running wide open. And when the opposing defense drops 7 or 8 into coverage, it lets Corral use his legs to pick up chunk yards.
All in all, Corral might be the most well rounded quarterback in the upcoming draft. He will come with some growing pains, never having run a pro-style offense and having to work through his gun slinger mentality. But if he hits his ceiling the kid could be a perennial pro-bowl level player.