An afternoon delight for UFC fight fans as Cyril Gane and Tia Tuivasa face off on center stage in France. With Gane the odds on favorite, can Tuivasa pull of yet another upset or are we looking at the new face of the Heavyweight divison?
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This card features high level talent across the board and is something that many fans should be blocking off their calendar for. A 3:00pm EST start gives everyone something to look forward to without struggling to stay awake on the couch. An international event, the first in France, is riddle with fighters from across the globe all looking to climb the ladder toward the Main Event scene.
| Favorite | Underdog | Weight Class |
| Cyril Gane (-520) | Tai Tuivasa (+410) | Heavyweight |
| Robert Whittaker (-210) | Marvin Vettori (+180) | Middleweight |
| Alessio Di Chirico (-110) | Roman Kopylov (-110) | Middleweight |
| Nasrat Haqparast (-230) | John Makdessi (+195) | Lightweight |
| Williams Gomis (-230) | Jarno Errens (+185) | Featherweight |
| Charles Jourdain (-150) | Nathaniel Wood (+130) | Featherweight |
Charles Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood
A matchup that should be a chess match stylistically, both Wood and Jourdain match each other in how busy they get in the Octagon. It is currently billed a bit in Jourdain’s favor but the game plan will make the match. Even though in the past he has been able to hold his own on the ground Jordain has recently struggled with the mat and should have worked on it in camp as Wood is going to want to take this to the ground. The swing factor here is if Jourdain can stay off his back and keep the fight standing up, because Wood generally grabs decision wins and.
Williams Gomis vs. Jarno Errens
Both fighters are making their debut for the UFC and there is a clear favorite here in Gomis. As long as he can stay focused the entire fight, however long it may be. Going over the main pillars of fighting Gomis just looks and feels quicker, more powerful and more agile than Errens on paper. While Errens finds wins in all three forms of victory, Gomis primarily has won 6 of his ten fights by way of knockout. Everything seems to be pointing in favor of Gomis here, and it should indicate the result.
Nasrat Haqparast vs. John Makdessi
Expect fireworks in this fight. Both men like to stand and bang and neither have a submission win in their career. With Haqparast coming off a loss he is going to look to get ahead and stay ahead of Makdessi as early as possible. While both men are going to need to respect the power of the other, Makdessi fighting against a size and reach disadvantage. While he is the heavier fighter without finding the lightning in the bottle he did in his last fight Makdessi should just be a gatekeeper for the floundering Haqparast.
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Roman Kopylov
Marked as a true pick’em at -110, your guess is as good as mine on who comes out victorious. Both men are looking to avenge their last loss and physically matchup to be identical. With no real advantage through reach our length, Di Chirico has found wins in all three ways and could look to put this on the ground for a decision. Kopylov is going to look for the knock out and dare Di Chirco to stand with him. If he does, the only thing guaranteed would be the fight ending early.
Robert Whittaker vs. Marvin Vettori
A true gatekeeper fight. As both men look to stay relevant in the division and make another push to contend for the title, the other would be relegated to middle tier status. While Vettori has been in this role for some time he may finally be able to pass the torch to a sliding Whittaker. With momentum from his last bout Vettori truly has a chance to fight for the title after the dust settles in the division. Expect both men to lay it on the line to prove they still have something left in the tank.
Breaking down the fighters in the Main Event:
Tai Tuivasa: Great striker/kickboxer he is light on his feet and will look to use his leg kicks to damage Gane’s lead leg. Hoping to stop any forward movements, especially with Gane’s wrestling ability.
Although Tai has a 50% takedown defense success rate he will want to avoid the ground with the French powerhouse as he has proven to be a far superior wrestler in comparison to Tuivasa’s previous opponents. Considering Derrick Lewis of all people took him down twice, the Shoey king is going to have his work cut out for him.
Tai’s game should be to chop the leg and try to make this a brawl in the clinch game. If he manages to escape on his way out expect him to throw whatever he can at a rapid rate for a flash finish. While Tai Tuivasa has had an impressive run since his comeback knockout against Struve in 2020, he has not faced a fighter with Ganes caliber.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wYAERt2-PQ&ab_channel=UFC-UltimateFightingChampionship
Cyril Gane: I believe here we have a true champion in Gane only if Ngannou decides to fight Tyson Fury for a fat paycheck. Immediately making a name for himself in his 11 career UFC fight, he has seemingly run the gauntlet of household name fighters. A KO/TKO of Junio Dos Antos, Derrick Lewis and a decision to Alexander Volkov are “division on notice” material.
It was only until recently that Gane was taken down by an opponent however, it happened four times in the fight. A major blow to his confidence coming so close to the title and being beat by Ngannou in grappling no less, don’t expect a similar situation against Tuivasa. Currently sitting at 60% success on takedown defense it should not move a percent point heading into Sunday.
In the same breath however, despite having an elite wrestling package, which may be a bit skewed due to the lack of ground game at the Heavyweight divison, he can’t seem to finish the takedowns (22% per 15 minutes) or get a submission (0.6 per 15 minutes). An extremely unwelcoming outlook for Gane staring at Tai’s 55% takedown defense, don’t forget he also can let his hands go. A calculated risk he manages 4.83 significant strikes landed per minute with a 58% strike accuracy. Meaning he can end this fight in a brawl.
Gane should focus on touching up Tai then immediately leading into a takedown at the end of a quick combination or bait Tuivasa with a few faints. He will need to stay composed and avoid those devastating kicks his opponent is known for but overall, for a man who has survived Ngannou’s power I believe this bout is a matter of when and how Gane wins rather than if.
Prediction: Gane (KO/TKO