Keith Thurman and Mario Barrios square off in a Welterweight showdown. Will this be a coming out party of Barrios after or is Thurman back for a title run?
Ladies and gentlemen pay per view boxing is back and we have a big one. It seems like it’s been a while since we’ve had a big event, this may be because we were spoiled with high level boxing near the end of last year. In any case, let’s get into the details of this welterweight scrap.
Barrios is making a brave leap, a natural lightweight and super lightweight contender, tonight he is moving up to Welterweight to challenge fan favorite Keith Thurman. To this point, the 26 year old Barrios has compiled an impressive 26-1 record, that one loss coming to the always dangerous Gervonta “Tank” Davis. Barrios first loss is one of the most memorable TKO finishes in recent boxing history. Moving up to 147 after losing a title at 140 seems like a tall task, but Barrios is a very tall super lightweight/junior welter, so this extra weight may give him the push he needs to move into the category of the truly elite. Some guys improved as they move up in weight, easier weight cuts can lead to better stamina and in some cases more power in the punching (contrary to popular belief). There’s nowhere to go but up when you’ve experienced the bottom, and this opportunity against a proven top guy at this weight (who’s admittedly had a long lay off) will be just the test Barrios needs.
But let’s get into the more recognizable name of the two, ONE TIME Keith Thurman. A veteran of 30 professional bouts, the 33 year old Thurman has built a thorough resume at 147 pounds. Thurman’s true rise to prominence occurred in between 2016-2017, clashing with some of the biggest names in his division. Over the years, he has gained victories over solid names such as Danny “Swift” Garcia, the recently retired Shawn Porter, and the very game Robert Guerrero among others. Thurman seemed to be on top of the world and poised to take over that division, until he began struggling with injuries that seemed to derail his momentum. It’s been a long road back for Thurman, who has fought twice since 2017, a tune up match against Josesito Lopez in 2019 which he won on a majority decision and a surprising loss to all time great Manny Pacquiao six months later. In the Pacquiao fight Thurman had trouble navigating the first six rounds, getting knocked down early, he collected himself in the late rounds eventually losing in a split decision. This was his first career loss and a defeat to a version of Pacquaio who had clearly passed his prime coupled with his prolonged absence thereafter, has caused many to doubt Thurmans’ place among the divisions elite. A Barrios win tonight could put the top guys in the division back in his cross hairs and vice versa, names like Yordenis Ugas, Errol Spence and Terrence Crawford become more attainable fights with a convincing win tonight. back of the cross hairs of the top guys in his division, which now look like Yordenis Ugas and of course two do the most interesting names in boxing today, Errol Spence and Terrence Crawford.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 2/5/2022
| FAVORITE | UNDERDOG | WEIGHT CLASS |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Thurman -190 | Mario Barrios +160 | Welterweight |
| Leo Santa Cruz -2200 | Keenan Carbajal +1100 | Featherweight |
| Abel Ramos -575 | Lucas Santamaria +425 | Welterweight |
| Luis Nery -150 | Carlos Castro +125 |
Super bantamweight |
Prediction:
Tim Bertrand: As far as predictions go, this fight will be an interesting display. Thurman is a good boxer with a lot of power in his hands. Something to consider, Thurmans’ last win by KO came in 2013. It is fair at this point to question if dominating power is still in his play book, but as mentioned prior the skill has always been there for “One Time”. Barrios is a naturally smaller man, his career actually began at bantamweight, but he has progressively moved up over time. Barrios embodies the pride of a Mexican fighter, excellent cardio, dizzying combinations and a never say die attitude, especially shown in his battle with Tank Davis. Due to Thurmans’ ring rust as well as the questions surrounding his mentality coming into this fight, I will pick the upset, and choose Barrios by decision in a back and forth brawl that may include a knockdown or two.
Joe Casey: On paper this fight makes sense for both parties, Barrios has a chance to take a statement win from an already questionable Thurman while “One Time” has a chance to parlay this showing into a title bout. Ring rust is real and I believe it is going to hurt Thurman in the first three to four rounds, if Barrios can start strong and get up on the cards he may be able to force his opponent to press and capitalize on a mistake. The more likely outcome, which is where I side, is that Thurman finds a way to win. While he hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2013 he has the experience and presumed power to stop the fight or at the very least keep Barrios honest. While I am almost positive this fight doesn’t end early, I expect Thurman to look like the fighter we thought he was prior to Pacquaio. This fight checks a box for “One Time” to get his name back in the conversation for a title shot, Barrios won’t lay down but it doesn’t feel as close as many are making it out to be. In my opinion, smart money is on Thurman via points.
Shawn Palumbo: I think it’s going to be a close fight heading into the finals rounds. Barrios youth mixed with Thurman’s lack of recent activity, with only three fights in five years, feels like it is going to be the deciding factor down the stretch. Expect a late round stoppage or unanimous decision for Barrios.