As the playing field continues to level, the stock report continues to get tighter. Not only is it hard to pick teams on the rise but not many teams are falling out. Programs continue to show that your chances of being a top 25 team are not based on the coaches poll in the preseason or the amount of five star recruits you have on your team. When each game tips off week to week, throw what you thought you knew out the window.
Teams on the Rise:
Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats were supposed to be better than last year, they were expected to be a top four team in the coaches poll, but could they be the best team in the PAC 12? This feels like we may be getting ahead of ourselves but they have seemingly come out of nowhere starting the season 6-0 and entering the top 25 at number eleven. While the opponents at home have been buy games, they did beat Wichita State and Michigan on a neutral court. Conference play starts tonight and I expect the Wildcats to continue to impress. Their starters all have at least a year under their belt and with age comes experience. A team overshadowed by UCLA, Oregon and USC in the preseason poll Sean Miller already has a signature win before December and should have his eyes set on March.
Florida Gators: Florida has already knocked off Florida State, Ohio State and Cal in convincing fashion. Another team filled with experience in their starting lineup the Gators are a score by committee offense with five players averaging double figures. Well coached and tournament tested last season, Florida did not receive a single vote for the AP top 25 in the preseason ranking. After knocking off in-state rival Florida State they did jump into the top 25 and have been there since. The Gators will continue to be tested in the SEC but with Colin Castleton anchoring them on both ends, expect them to continue to exceed expectations.
Teams Falling Out:
Michigan Wolverines: Michigan has lost two games to what looks like two good teams. Both Seton Hall and now Arizona have been featured in our stock report and currently sit in the top 25. While Michigan shouldn’t hit the panic button, they are falling out because there should be growing concern around their current situation.
Honorable Mentions:
The Rest: Usually this list consists of two teams rising, two teams falling and one honorable mention. This week we had to adjust our own format to better serve college basketball. Starting with a few teams that were already mentioned on a stock report, Ohio State and Michigan State fell out but they have slowly reentered the fold. Even though Michigan State started slow in their game against Kentucky the last three weeks have proven that Max Christie is a legitimate lottery pick and can help carry the Spartans back into the regular field of 64 come tournament time. While it would be improbable for this Michigan State team to win the B1G, stranger things have happened. It was our opinion that Ohio State wasn’t that good. While this still may be the case EJ Liddell is great and can keep the Buckeyes in any game against any opponent, as he clearly proved against #1 Duke. His decision to return to OSU after a tournament run that barely had them off the plane seems to be mutually beneficial so far. Picking up a win and then a loss on two buzzer beaters, Ohio State is lingering outside the top 25 and will be for some time. As we move forward expect the Buckeyes to be a top 20-28 team any given week. Speaking of Seton Hall, they are barely hanging on to their #25 ranking because of that heartbreaking loss to Ohio State. Better than many expected the Pirates seem to be better than their ranking and could be a team ranked anywhere from twelve to twenty five going forward. With tough out of conference games coming up you could see the Pirates fall off for a few weeks and make it back up in Big East play. A team that also looks prepared to return to the tournament don’t forget New Jersey’s favorite basketball team. In addition to these three teams, St. Bonaventure and Memphis are also real. Memphis has two top prospects and St. Bonaventure has created a solid pipeline of talent through program building. Two totally different ways of creating a winning program but both seem to be working this year. I believe both teams are discounted for their conference. Their wins mean less and their losses mean more, St. Bonaventure lost to Northern Iowa and ended up out of the top 25 after being ranked in the top 15 while Memphis fell nine spots after their only loss. Discounting these programs because of who they play may keep them out of the top 25 going forward but this is how an “upset” occurs in March. In my opinion, Memphis is a team with two top five NBA ready talents and a solid supporting cast while St. Bonaventure has been a winning mid-major for over a decade. Expect both of these teams to make noise for the rest of the season regardless of the acknowledgement they receive from the AP poll. While there are an array of other teams to mention from LSU and Wisconsin to Illinois and Indiana, they will all be featured in this report moving forward. The NCAA ranking is going to be an extremely fluid list this season because of the talent pool at the collegiate level. If you don’t see your team this week, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were here next week.