It took a few games for AJ Griffin to find his footing in Coach K’s system, but he hasn’t looked back since. A prospect that doesn’t get the same hype as the other top talent he is going to be off the board early.
Check out MIP 99 here to see who Griffin can jump over with a final four run!
Bio and Measurables:
| Age | 18 |
| Height | 6-6 |
| Weight | 222lb |
| Position | Forward |
| College | Duke |
| Draft Projection | High Lottery |
| Role | Starter |
| MPG | 23.4 |
| PPG | 10.3 |
| RPG | 3.9 |
| APG | 1.0 |
| STL | 0.5 |
| TO | 0.6 |
| FG% (3PT%) | 49.8 (45.5) |
Strengths:
Griffin has shown tremendous NBA level potential during his first season at Duke. A physically gifted forward with both great size and wingspan, he has the explosiveness and athleticism to compete at the highest level. The offensive side of the floor is where Griffin makes his mark, a true offensive swiss army knife he has everything you could want from a top tier forward prospect. On the ball he has shown a good first step which helps create separation on the drive and allows him to keep defenses honest when he is handling the ball. Strong dribble moves allow Griffin to create space both beyond the arc and in the mid-range. This ability to create his own shot, increase separation from the defender anywhere on the floor all while playing under control should make the transition to NBA pace much easier.
Off the ball, he has shown a strong basketball IQ, moving without the ball and finding open space on the perimeter or by filing the lane correctly. By no means a bruiser inside or a punisher in the post, 45% of his made field goals around the rim were assisted proving that most of the time these are coming from running the floor, cutting to the basket or finding open space around the rim. In addition to his ability to run the floor and convert touches around the rim, he is also an extremely capable in catch and shoot scenarios. One of, if not, the best shooter in this draft class his combination of offensive touch on all three levels with his fluid release and bouncy athletic ability makes him an immediate offensive threat. With super high pick and roll potential as someone who can both pop or drive to the basket he has the size to set initial motion screens and capitalize on defensive lapses. In addition to this potential, he doesn’t need many shots to make an impact on the game. If he does not carve out a large chunk of minutes in the beginning of the year the extreme efficiency he showed during his freshman year at Duke, 50/46/76 on 7.5 attempts per game will still allow him to grow and develop while he expands his role. Being able to make an impact without dominating the ball is going to be essential as he fits into his new NBA offense and lack of touches won’t stunt his growth based on what he does when he has the ball.
Defensively he has room for improvement but has shown flashes’ of the defender he can become. His size and length allow him to frustrate his offensive assignment on or off the ball and force them into an uncomfortable position in the half court. One on one is always going to be a challenge and he can become a player that disrupts an offensive set. While his potential hinges on his offensive ability, a defensive breakthrough would only elevate his professional ceiling.
Areas of Improvement:
Griffin is a top five pick with good reason and has the potential to elevate himself even further during his time in the league. Going forward he has the size and frame to get to the line more frequently. While he isn’t even going to be someone who backs you down or uses his size to post up, his ability to drive to the basket and take on larger defenders should be something he continues to focus on. Only averaging 1.3 attempts per game may have been a product of only attempting 7.5 shots but with an expected increase in minutes at the next level, a 77% free throw shooter has to get to the line more than once a game. Additional free throws will help both his points per game and the rest of his team. Placing additional pressure on defenders, forcing them to step up in the pick and roll and being able to challenge rim protectors is going to make him an even better player going forward. A bit of a hand in hand improvement can be his aggression and consistency. It seemed to kick up down the stretch when he was healthier but his high highs and low lows were something that should change going forward. While he doesn’t need 18 shots a game to make his mark finding 8-10 shots and 2-5 free throws, which he is extremely capable of, could help him make a significant impact in his rookie campaign. Currently not much of a play maker his ball handling skills and size could help him develop into a decent initiator going forward. A building block for his passing ability could be starting as the initiator in the pick and roll. Getting comfortable with controlling offensive sets and playmaking within his ability will help him improve as a passer in the half court and open floor going forward.
A solid two way player if he puts it all together, Griffin can continue to improve on the defensive end. He has shown flashes of being a frustrating one on one defender but has the tendency to wait a half or even quarter step too long to make a play. Griffin has been beat on back door cuts and by players with a quicker first step. If he can work on his anticipation and adjust to the speed of his assignment he can cut out allowing preventable baskets. Also has a chance to improve as a rebounder, he wasn’t the best at tracking long rebounds and seemed to be content with allowing bigger teammates work the boards. Only 3.3 rebounds per game it wouldn’t be a huge adjustment for him to get more aggressive on the glass.
External Factors: Griffin was born into a family of athletes, his father player ten years in the NBA and his mother ran track at Seton Hall. Two of his siblings have also had successful college basketball careers at high D1 colleges. With so much basketball experience in the family and his father understanding the NBA life, Griffin should be better prepared to adjust to the grind of the NBA when he makes the jump.
Medical History: Griffin has had bad luck with injuries in the past and was held out the first month of the season with a sprained knee. During the Round of 32 he injure his ankle and is questionable for the Sweet 16. While ankle injuries do tend to linger, the severity of the injury was labeled a “stinger” but it is something to monitor the rest of the way.
Summary:
MIP Projection: Lottery Pick (4-8)