With six teams being sent on vacation last week, the rest of the field is three games away from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. However, with fewer teams comes greater competition. Who will make it out of the divisional round?
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans
The Line: Tennessee -3.5, -190ML, O/U 47, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Wednesday, 1/19/2022)
Cincinnati had a lot to celebrate about last weekend when Joe Burrow led his squad to their first playoff win since 1992. The Bengals found a way to score on 6 of their drives, with 4 field goals coming from rookie kicker Evan McPherson. Their reward? A divisional round dance with the Tennessee Titans, who just got Derrick Henry back for this matchup. If the Bengals want to win, stopping that man at all costs must come as a top priority. They will have a better chance to stop Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball to his receivers than they would if Henry was running at full steam for 9-15 yards a carry. Offensively, the focus for Burrow should be to get more of his offensive weapons involved, namely Tee Higgins. Higgins only had 10 yards in his last outing and needs to be involved in the offense more. Burrow has to spread the ball around so that Ja’Marr Chase isn’t keyed on.
The Titans are coming off their bye week with huge news: Derrick Henry is going to be starting, now that he is off IR and healthy. This completely changes the dynamic of the offense. As of late, Ryan Tannehill has started to open up the passing game more and giving more of the workload to Julio Jones and AJ Brown. Having Henry back helps Tannehill immensely, as he now won’t have to worry about being blitzed constantly. Not only that, but Henry is more than capable of carrying the offensive load for this team should Tannehill struggle. As for the defense, keeping Ja’Marr Chase under lock and key should be the primary focus. Chase has been Burrow’s favorite target throughout the season, and there’s nothing that will change that for this game. If he can be kept contained, the Titans should be able to get a handle on the game.
THE PICK: While the Titans do get Derrick Henry back, it’s hard to ignore what Joe Burrow and the Bengals have accomplished this season, especially as of late. While I think the Titans do have the better team, the Bengals will do everything that they can to keep the game close. I believe it will come down to the wire, with the Titans going for the game winning FG as time expires. I’ll take the Titans to win, but the Bengals will cover. BENGALS +3.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
The Line: Packers -6, -255 ML, O/U 46.5, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Wednesday, 1/19/2022)
San Francisco went into Dallas last week and brought the fight to the Cowboys, winning the game 23-17. Jimmy Garoppolo had his stellar moments and some low moments as well, but the 49ers were able to hold on thanks to the Cowboys wild mismanagement of the game clock with time winding down. For their efforts and success, they now get to travel to Green Bay and face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In order for the 49ers to have a chance to pull off this divisional round upset, Jimmy G is going to need to have an outstanding game, to say the least. He is going to have to get Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle more touches than they saw against Dallas. Defensively, the goal has to be to sack Aaron Rodgers and keeping pressure on him the whole game. It’s a task that Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead will need to take on for San Francisco to have a chance. If Garoppolo can return to his 2019-20 season form, the 49ers can pull off a major upset.
The Packers are coming off their playoff bye prepared for the 49ers. Matt LaFleur even came out and said that they started preparing for the 49ers during their bye week (by the way, what a veiled shot at the Cowboys). For the Packers to take care of business against San Francisco, Aaron Rodgers will need to continue to spread the ball around to Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mercedes Lewis. In addition to that, the one-two punch of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon need to make themselves known to the 49ers defense to take some of the pressure off of Rodgers. Defensively, getting Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus back will be absolutely crucial to trying to pressure Jimmy G into making mistakes. The back 7 need to focus on Deebo Samuel and Kittle, whether Samuel is in the backfield as a halfback or on the outside as a deep threat WR. If they can keep pressure on Jimmy G and limit offensive turnovers, the Packers will be knocking on the door of the Super Bowl next Sunday.
THE PICK: As much as you have to respect what the 49ers have done all season, it’s still hard to take them in this game. How the 49ers will fare in this game depends on which Jimmy G shows up to play in Lambeau, while Aaron Rodgers has been consistent in his greatness. I’m going with the MVP and the Packers to cover. PACKERS -6
Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Line: Bucs -3, -146 ML, O/U 46.5, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Wednesday, 1/19/2022)
Tampa Bay absolutely eviscerated the Eagles in their Wild Card matchup. Tom Brady found his top 2 targets (Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski) early for touchdowns, and found Evans over and over again throughout the course of the game. Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Gio Bernard both added touchdowns on the ground to round out a complete performance by the Bucs. They are going to need this kind of repeat performance against a Rams team that can score points at will. What should be a major focal point on offense for Tampa is the play of the offensive line. Brady was sacked 4 times against a formidable Eagles D-Line, and the Rams D-Line is arguably the best in the league. The O-Line is going to have to play a perfect game in order to keep Brady upright. On the defensive side of the ball, Todd Bowles is going to have his hands full trying to keep the Ram’s Pro Bowl lineup of wide receivers in check, and will need to rely on a consistent pass rush from Vita Vea and Jason Pierre-Paul to force Matthew Stafford out of his rhythm. So long as Tom Brady is still their quarterback, you cannot count Tampa Bay out.
The Rams, meanwhile, had their own dominating performance on Monday night against the Cardinals. Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff win and played well against a division rival, throwing for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns and adding another rushing score to the mix. Aaron Donald and the defense had Kyler Murray in check the entire night and kept the cardinals to 3 points until garbage time ensued. In order to beat the Bucs, Donald and Von Miller are going to need to get to Brady and pressure him out of the pocket. It’s been the tried and true method of being successful against the greatest QB of all time, and these two are some of the best at getting to the QB. Offensively, Cam Akers and Sony Michel are going to be instrumental in keeping Tampa’s defense honest, which will open up some passing lanes for Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and OBJ.
THE PICK: Brady will be the reason Tampa will be competitive in this game. All throughout his career he has shown up and balled out in big games, and if I had to guess, this game will be no exception. With that being said, I believe that the Rams will keep this a competitive game. They have too much talent on both sides of the ball to lay an egg in this divisional round matchup. I’m gonna take the Rams to cover, and would not be surprised if they won this game outright. RAMS +3
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Line: Chiefs -1.5, -126 ML, O/U 54.5, courtesy as of FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Wednesday, 1/19/2022)
The beating that the Buffalo Bills gave the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round was thorough. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer caused Mac Jones to struggle in his first playoff game, while Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs led the offense to score on every drive they had. In their upcoming divisional round matchup against the Chiefs, the main x-factor for the Bills will again be Devin Singletary. Last week against the Patriots, he had 16 carries for 81 yards and 2 TDs. For the Bills to succeed on offense, Singletary will need to have a similar game to keep Kansas City’s defense honest and open up the passing game for Allen, Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox. Defensively, Poyer and Hyde will have their hands full against the Chief’s explosive stable of route-runners led by superstar QB Patrick Mahomes. The Bills have a tall task this week on the road, but they have the talent to get the job done.
Kansas City had their own impressive win against the Steelers on Wild Card weekend. Mahomes threw for an eye popping 404 yards and 5 touchdowns and added 29 more yards on the ground when absolutely necessary. The Chiefs defense, led by Tyrann Mathieu, made Big Ben’s possible final game an absolute nightmare. Now that they face a top 10 team in the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City should be focusing on running the ball. Jerick McKinnon will need to make his presence felt against a Bills run defense that has been around average all season long. This takes some of the pressure off of Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Defensively, Chris Jones and the defensive line need to keep contain and not let Josh Allen get a chance to use his legs to move the ball down the field. If the Chiefs can play sound football and focus on these two key aspects, they will be advancing to the AFC Championship game.
THE PICK: The last time these two teams played, the Chiefs were off to a miserably slow start and the Bills steamrolled them. This time around, both teams are firing on all cylinders. While the Bills put on an impressive performance against the Patriots, I’m not sure they can repeat that same performance against Kansas City. #ChiefsKingdom all the way. CHIEFS -1.5