Even though we are still in the full swing of the NFL season it is never too early to start thinking about your next franchise quarterback. In part one of our two part series, we examine four quarterbacks who could be under center next season.
Almost yearly, even when there is no clear cut #1, a quarterback will rise to the top of the big board and get drafted in the top five. In the beginning of this season it appeared as many as four quarterbacks could go in the top 15. While there still may be a possibility of some signal callers going early, we don’t have any clear cut favorite.
I’m not saying we could be looking at a 2013 type of situation in the draft. 2013 was notoriously bad with the first quarterback coming off the board at pick 16 and only 3 QBs having been taken in the first 3 rounds. But there is a glaring deficiency of talent at the quarterback position this year. In the upcoming draft we have broken down eight viable options at the quarterback position. Below, we highlight number eight to five.
#8 Kedon Slovis
USC
Our last quarterback on the list, a plyer that has taken a mighty fall, Kedon Slovis of USC. I had him ranked as my QB2 in the preseason, expecting a big jump forward in his third year under center. That has not worked out the way I, like many, have expected.
On the surface Slovis checks the boxes. Good size at 6’3, plays for a major program, solid mechanics and athletic ability, and throws a nice catchable ball. He has above average arm talent and seems to be a smart kid. His greatest attribute is his ability to throw where his target will be, not where they are. You can’t teach that anticipation, so while he has physical limitations, his football acumen makes up for it.
As for cons, he hasn’t been overly impressive at any point in his career. He doesn’t have that one game or “Heisman moment” that wows the viewer. You would think in 2.5 years as a starter for a storied program you’d see at least one of those. He can also be a bit careless with the ball, forcing throws and taking chances that have cost the Trojans in some big spots.
After looking like a super star in the making in 2019, Slovis has regressed every year. His yards per attempt, turnovers, completion percentage, and touchdowns have all trended in the wrong direction; despite an excellent offensive line and the emergence of his top target, Drake London, as a near lock top 25 pick. He is still worthy of a draft pick, but unless something major changes, it will not be on the first night or maybe even the second.
#7 Spencer Rattler
Oklahoma
Rattler looked downright terrible from the beginning of the season. He regularly held onto the ball too long, made an errant throw on nearly every drive, turned the ball over 6 times in 5.5 games, and had Oklahoma on the brink of defeat in games against Tulane, Kansas State, and West Virginia.
The breaking point came against Texas in the Red River Showdown. After completing just over 50% of his passes and turning the ball over twice; Oklahoma was down 35-17. Lincoln Riley put in star recruit Caleb Williams, who answered the bell.
Rattler was riding the pine for a few weeks until The Sooners most recent outing against Baylor. After Caleb Williams struggled to move the ball Rattler was briefly inserted to provide the Sooners with a spark. The replacement was short lived, Rattler only managed 36 yards on 6 attempts and Caleb Williams was put back into the game.
Rattler is such an intriguing prospect for NFL teams. He has all the arm talent you could want paired with above average athleticism. When Rattler is in the zone he is deadly accurate, completing 70% or more of his passes in 10 of his 16 games as a starter. He can deliver the ball from the pocket, on the move, and from all different arm slots. While some QBs need to set their feet and drive to get the ball where they want it to go, Rattler has the ability to deliver the with his back turned and one foot off the ground. While he won’t win many 40 yard dash competitions, he has functional mobility that allows him to escape pressure and pick up the yards necessary to move the sticks.
For all of Rattlers positive traits he has one glaring weakness, inconsistency. For all the times he has completed 70% of his passes and looked like a top prospect, there has been more than a few occasions where he looked pedestrian. These inconsistencies are what led to him being replaced by Caleb Williams earlier this season. You truly wonder how one person can blow you away one game, and look like he would fight for playing time at the FCS level in the next game.
Pro teams needs consistency under center. Inconsistency at quarterback leads to a whole host of problems with an offense. Add that to his propensity to drop his eyes and run, his risky throws and his lapses in judgment leading to 6 turnovers in as many games; and you’ll understand why Lincoln Riley pulled the plug on him this year.
Rattler is likely to hit the transfer portal this off-season and forgo the draft. And it would serve him right, he has tons of natural ability but just couldn’t avoid the mistakes this season and had a ready made replacement breathing down his shoulder. If Rattler does decide to enter the draft I could see a team taking a flyer on him in the 1st round but he’d more than likely fall outside of the top 50.
Howell and Rattler were the two top dogs, but there were other names thrown around early.
#6 Desmond Ridder
Cincinnati
At the helm of the undefeated Bearcats, Desmond Ridder powers college football’s little engine that could. While everyone has their eyes on Bama’s dominant ways and Ohio States prolific offense, Cincy is quietly breathing down their necks for a spot in the playoffs.
A four year starter at quarterback, Desmond Ridder has shown all the qualities of someone you want to lead your team. He has grown as a player every year, showing improvement in his decision making and ability to spin the rock.
While his arm strength won’t blow you out of the water and his stats aren’t the flashiest, he is one of the more well rounded quarterbacks at the collegiate level. He has great height at 6’4, with a frame that could stand to add a few pounds. He has nice touch on his intermediate passes, throwing a very catchable ball. He is also a tremendous athlete running for 5 or more touchdowns in all four seasons of his career.
The most important stat of all is the one that matters the most. This kid is a straight up winner. He is 41-6 in his career, and 2-1 in bowl games; his only loss coming in a 24-21 loss to Georgia in last years Peach Bowl. He always seems to shine when the lights are brightest, with six 4th quarter comebacks.
Ridder does seem to have troubles dealing with pressure effectively. He uses his natural ability as a runner a bit too quickly at times. Instead of using his legs to extend plays, there’s times he drops his eyes and runs. Any time you’re vacating the pocket early and running there will be opportunities missed. It’s something that can be worked on, but a hard habit to break.
He doesn’t have the consistency you’d like to see in the deep game either. He occasionally misses his downfield targets in the worst way leading to an alarming number of interceptions. He could really stand to improve his touch when going deep, and work on his timing. He can be a bit erratic on intermediate throws as well, but that stems from a lack of great mechanics and a reliance on his legs to get the job done.
If someone can draft and develop Ridder, he could be a Ryan Tannehill level quarterback. You could do much worse than a pro-bowler who’s started 5 playoff games in his career.
#5 Carson Strong
Nevada
Possibly the most polarizing quarterback in the 2022 draft is Nevada’s Carson Strong. Seriously, you won’t find more of a discrepancy in draft projection as you will find in Strong. Over the last month I’ve seen him projected everywhere from #1 overall, all the way down to the mid 2nd round. Some of that may have to do with playing for a west coast mid-major. It’s hard to have the eyes of the country on you when your games are starting at 11pm.
All Carson Strong has done this year is register in the top 10 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage. He has great size coming in at 6’4 and 220 pounds. While size may not be a deal breaker for a QB any more it’s good to know your potential franchise cornerstone has the bill to withstand an NFL pass rush; especially when he is a pure pocket passer.
He has an excellent arm. His motion is nearly mechanical, consistently getting rid of the ball quick with compact and concise passes. When every millisecond counts, having a guy who can throw it 50 yards down field without a wind up is crucial. If you were looking for a quarterback wit the best pure mechanics in college, you’d be hard pressed to find someone better than Strong. A lot of guys with big arms at this stage don’t always have the best touch on their throws, but Strong can throw the back shoulder fade as well as he can throw a 10 yard out.
What he lacks in speed and quickness he makes up for with a hair trigger release and field generalship. When he senses pressure his release allows him to throw it away or find his hot read. He is fantastic pre-snap, dissecting what the defense is showing and making adjustments accordingly. There’s been at least a dozen times this year alone, that a sure negative play was averted by a pre-snap change in protection.
It’s a good thing that he has such a quick release and sharp mind. Strong has not fared well with pressure in his face. He will fade back and throw off balance when the heat is on, leading to quite a few bad plays. He gets away with it a lot because of his natural arm talent, but that doesn’t always work on Sunday.
There are also questions about level of competition. Now I’m not here to throw shade at the Mountain West. There are some very good programs in the conference and it seems like 1 or 2 teams always end the year in the top 25. But when compared to some of his peers from the PAC12, SEC and ACC, it presents a fair criticism.